27% of Republicans Could Go Third Party

On the surface this seems like terrible news for Rudy. Earlier, I dismissed this talk of a religious right peel off as an empty threat, but this poll appears to give it some substance. Basically, the problem is that a certain amount of pro-lifers don't like Rudy and they are threatening to take the marbles and go home if the game isn't played their way. This could be waved off as an empty threat, given that between Hillary and Rudy, there is no way that Dobson & Co. won't fall in line behind the Republican machine.

So for the religious right to have some impact on the process in order to steer the GOP away from a pro-choice candidate, they not only have to threaten a third party, they have to do so believably.

And that's where this Rasmussen poll is important, as it makes the threat seem real. Real that is, until you read further down in the article:

The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.

With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. That's down from 31% in a two-way race.

So Republicans are extremely confident about Rudy's chances in a general election, perhaps more confident than they should be given the current mood. And Republicans in general also understand that a third party would most likely result in a Hillary candidacy. Everyone understands this, which puts the third party threat in more context.

The religious right can threaten, but even they understand that their threat is basically that of a person on a ledge: "Don't move or I'll jump", they cry. But do we believe that they will follow through?