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John McCain Down to His Last Chips

4 years ago
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From Jonathan Martin of Politico:
As John McCain gambles on a comeback, his presidential campaign is confronting a key question: Should the candidate place his last few chips on one square or two?
Well, if we're going to torture a gambling metaphor, I think we can all agree that McCain is down to his last chips, but can go one more round. The question is what's the point? The McCain campaign is dead. Has been dead since last June when he pushed an illegal alien amnesty bill in the face of terrific GOP opposition. The rank and file took it out on his presidential chances which took a dumper then and never recovered.
Martin goes on to detail the stark choices of Team McCain:

There is no question where McCain faces his do-or-die moment. It is here in New Hampshire, the stage for the Arizonan's most triumphant moment in national politics - his 19-point thumping of George W. Bush in the GOP primary in 2000. Within his cash-starved, organization-depleted campaign, there is uniform agreement that a repeat victory is imperative.

But agreement breaks down over Iowa. One side holds that the candidate should minimize his resources in the first caucus state, just as he did in 2000, and devote maximum effort to the Granite State, where he is running third in polls. The other believes there is no way McCain can win New Hampshire unless he performs at least credibly in Iowa, arguing that he should continue to spend significant time and resources there.

That he is even facing an Iowa-New Hampshire trade-off reflects the pallid state of McCain's campaign. With more debt than he has cash on hand, the campaign is facing yet another stark choice: Take out a massive loan, or accept federal matching funds and the spending limitations that come with them. In both parties in the cash-flush 2008 cycle, the decision to accept federal funds is perceived as a de facto acknowledgment of second-tier status.


John McCain is down by 12 points in New Hampshire with just two months to go. In Iowa he's at 6%. If those two results stand he's done, and now he doesn't have the money to compete while Huckabee is surging.

While he has a few chips left, he can bow out with dignity, thank his supporters, explain that Romney/Giuliani/Huckabee/Thompson/whoever will have to carry the torch. To the point that he's not doing this, it's pure ego.


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