Hillary Hits the Glass Ceiling

While Hillary is continuing to outpoll many individual Republicans, Jim Geraghty is noticing something interesting. No matter who you put up against Hillary, she never gets above 48%. Ron Paul? 48%. Patrick Ruffini compares it to elections past.

Basically, Republicans can run a stuffed animal against Hillary and still get 48% of the vote. Only worse. Ron Paul is widely despised by elements of the Republican base. A number of conservatives I know would bolt or sit on their hands if General Zod came down and made sure Ron Paul were the nominee. So what does it say he trails by 10 points? In 1996, the paleocon candidate Pat Buchanan won New Hampshire and he was the subject of a number of head to head polls against Bill Clinton. He got crushed by 25 points or more, and Clinton wasn't even that popular at the time. And Pat Buchanan had communications skills, and a following in the conservative base.

And saying this will bring the Ron Paul fans out, but piling on Ron Paul is not the point. The point is that Hillary has a ceiling, it appears to be at about 48% and while she can get to that point fairly quickly, she needs %50 + a little extra to win.

re-polarized nation anyone? But we knew this already. Hillary's weaknesses are numerous, well-known, and already priced in to the primary. But the Democrats have taken a look around their field of contenders and concluded, rightfully IMO, that Hillary is the best shot unless they can convince Elizabeth Edwards to ditch the husband and run in her own right.

As Donna Brazile recently said:

"I want to see if John Edwards will say to Hillary Clinton in front of everyone: 'You're not electable, and you know it, and you're going to hurt people down the ballot,' " said Brazile, who hasn't endorsed anyone. "It's time to stop whispering. It's getting to be midnight."

HT to Ben Keeler

But maybe we need to be reminded: Hillary has fundamental weaknesses we can enumerate. A political tin ear and an inability to connect with voters, a scandal-plagued past, a marriage bound by power rather than love*, and any number of ticking time bombs that could blow up at any second (just to pick one: Peter Paul)

It's really a wonder when you consider all that that she's the best nominee. But she is.