U.S. Commanders See End to Anbar Presence

United States military commanders issued a surprising prediction yesterday, telling reporters that Anbar Province, once a no-go zone for coalition personnel, could be handed over to Iraqi security forces by next March. If the prediction proves correct, it will be the most concrete evidence to date that the Bush Administration's strategy of a troop surge has been a success.

Anbar, Iraq's wild west, had been the scene of some of the bloodiest fighting in Iraq since the end of major combat operations. Along with Baghdad and Tikrit, Anbar's capital Ramadi served as one apex of the Sunni triangle, an area of Iraq in which saw the most insurgent activity after the fall of the Hussein regime. Anbar is also home to Fallujah, a notoriously violent city that United States forces had to clean out twice. But since the troop surge, the so called "Anbar Awakening" is serving as a model of cooperation between coalition forces and the local population. Still, no one expected that Anbar would move so quickly toward full Iraqi control.

U.S. commanders in Anbar also announced an expected reduction in troops stationed there. Marine Brigadier General John Allen said that he expects four or five battalions, roughly 4,000 troops, to leave the area by the early spring. Army battalions would potentially be sent to other parts of the country, while Marines would be sent home and not replaced, according to the plan. There are 13 battalions stationed in Anbar currently. With their support troops, the total number of U.S. forces in the province tops 36,000. The reductions, should they occur, would cut the U.S. troop presence there by about one-third.

President Bush made a high profile stopover in Iraq in early September in advance of Iraq commander General David Petraeus' much anticipated testimony to Congress on the progress of the troop surge. Instead of landing in Baghdad as he has done in the past, the president made a point of landing in Anbar province and holding meetings with Iraqi leaders there. He also addressed the nation from out in the open in Anbar on the trip. The images from the trip were intended to highlight the dramatic successes taking place in Anbar.

Now it seems the Pentagon is preparing to validate Petraeus' upbeat Congressional testimony on the troop surge and the president's image crafting by relinquishing security operations in Iraq's largest province. The message is that if it can happen in Anbar, it can happen anywhere in Iraq. Certainly, the Administration hopes that Anbar's experience can serve as motivation for local groups to cooperate with the coalition and with rival factions in turning around more violent areas like Diyala province. Home to Baqubah, Diyala has supplanted Anbar as the center of al-Qaeda activity in the country.