I(owa) Heart(s) Huckabee

Make it official, folks -- the first public poll has been released showing Mike Huckabee surging into first place in Iowa. As if Mitt Romney didn't have enough to worry about, with basically a month to go in Iowa, his main competitor for the religious vote now has the momentum, the energy, and the sheer numbers.

The latest numbers from Rasmussen show Mike Huckabee winning the support of 28% of Iowans with Mitt Romney close behind with 25%. Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson are further behind, at 12% and 11% respectively.

The bigger news from the numbers is that it means Huckabee is surging quickly. Since a Rasmussen survey earlier in the month, he has jumped a full 12 points. And the numbers just might get worse for Mitt Romney, thanks to the caucus math.
Digging deeper in the numbers, Huckabee is running even stronger among previous caucus-goers, the people most likely to attend the events. And given that right now Huckabee and Romney are the only two candidates safely above the 15% threshold, it stands to reason that the supporters of a lot of other candidates will have to decide whether to back Huck or Mitt on the evening of January 3rd.

Here's my guess: if Rudy Giuliani's team can steer his people to Huck, they will. Why? Because Mitt Romney is Rudy's biggest obstacle to the nomination and a defeat in Iowa is close to fatal for the Massachusetts Governor. As for Fred Thompson supporters, they may go to Mitt, but it's just as likely that they split between the two candidates.

But here's the bad news for Mike Huckabee: changing polls means changing expectations. At the same time that this new poll came out, Chris Cilizza wrote a lengthy piece detailing how it was unlikely, but possible, that Mike Huckabee could win Iowa. This new poll changes the game, raising expectations for Mike Huckabee and lowering them for Romney.

If Romney comes back from this and lands a victory in Iowa, the media will turn his victory into a comeback. And it will be the end of Huckabee's surging campaign, in all likelihood.

Still, even acknowledging the expectation game, don't expect to hear the Huckabee campaign crying over these numbers. More likely than not, what they really means is a few days of glowing press, more bad stories for Romney, and new infusions of cash to the Huckabee operation.