New NBC/WSJ Poll Shows GOP Tossup

According to a new NBC/WSJ poll just out, Mitt & Rudy are now tied at 20% nationally, with the Huck just behind at 17% and McCain -- who suffers for the lack of a memorable nickname -- at 14%. If this poll is accurate, then the margin of error indicates a three way tie.

This is good news for Mitt, who has been stuck at about 14% or lower for months. It suggests that all of the media attention centered on his faith speech had the intended effect. For Huck, this is mixed news, as he had hopes of pulling ahead in the field, as polls last week showed him pulling ahead in Iowa and catching Rudy nationally.

Now, two new Iowa polls show Mitt and Huck essentially tied in Iowa, at a time when the burden of expectations has reversed. Huck is already perceived as the front runner there, and a draw with Romney would now be good outcome for the latter, especially given his stronger position in New Hampshire. The other bad news for Huck is that it suggests that his vulnerabilities are catching up with him. His run to the top was based on charisma, but the inevitable scrutiny of his record is already taking its toll.

Rudy is obviously the big loser here, as attacks on his character and judgment continue, and the sense develops that he would not stand up as well to the beating in a general election as had been supposed. His claim to the throne all along had been that he could win. With that claim jeopardized, it's not surprising to see him crash.

The general election match ups show Obama running much better against Republicans than Hillary. This is not surprising and should not be over-read, though of course it will be. Obama in the voters minds is largely a cipher. Voters have yet to scrutinize his record or absence of it. Expect that to change in short order, just as it did with Huck. The difference, of course, is that it is harder to find material to attack because Obama's resume is so woefully short on material. But that is his major weakness, and it will be exploited.