Can Fred Save the GOP Coalition?

As I scanned through the latest articles today, a common thread appeared around what seems to be a whole lot of wishful thinking that Fred Thompson is on the way up.

Example 1: Jack Kelly in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:

In a campaign marked more by who voters are against than by who they are for, Fred Thompson is a safe choice. His views -- which he articulates well -- offend none of the core constituencies in the GOP. The more Mitt and Huck fight, the better he looks to Iowa voters.

If Mike Huckabee's been the hare in this race, Fred Thompson is the tortoise. In Aesop's fable, it was the tortoise who eventually won.

Example 2: A focus on Fred's heavy schedule from Pat Ruffini:

Lazy Fred is no more. The dude's had 5 events in Iowa each day the last week. Some of those events were canceled because of a blizzard today, others received less than rave reviews, but you can't argue that Fred is confounding the pundits with a bruising schedule when it matters most. That kind of thing counts in Iowa, and as a result of that and the inevitable Huckaslide, I'm predicting he places a surprisingly strong third and stays in the race.

And we have a more downbeat assessment from the Politico, who are no fans of Fred, if the recent past is any indication.

Thompson has little money left in bank and has had to slash his television presence here to a level well below that of Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. His cash crunch is so severe that he's even had to freeze his direct mail plan.

So now, for the next two weeks before the caucuses, he'll be largely living off the land.

And so far this has produced absolutely no pop in the polls. Again wishful thinking of many people, myself included, would indicate a Fred surge, as I believe he is the one that is most able to unite all wings of the GOP. And if it's not Fred, there's going to be a signicant portion of the base who are Not Happy. Which is Not Good. Unless your first name is Hillary.

So cross your fingers all you want, but I'm pragmatic enough to see that there is absolutely no indication of any real surge for Fred. And he's almost out of time. If he comes in third, yes, he stays in the game, but he has to do as well in Michigan, New Hampshire, and then come back in South Carolina, where he is losing to both Huck and Romney at this point. If he doesn't move back to the top by that time, he's done.