Last Call - The Democrats

Who Will Have Iowa's Biggest After Party?

It's Closing Time at the Iowa Bar. And Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama are all trying to bring as many voters home as they can. In the contest to have the biggest after party, it's utterly crucial to pull out all the stops. The terrain in Iowa is extremely fluid and polling shows the race as anyone's game (McClatchy has a 3-way tie; Zogby has a 3-way tie; ARG has a Clinton lead, but a very tight voter frame that may distort results; Research 2000 has a 3-way tie; etc.). But that won't stop junkies from trying to make heads or tails of what's happening.

So let's take a closer look at the Iowa Bar.Who's Buying Shots?

Usually by this point in the campaign, things would be a lot nastier. By this point in the last cycle, anti-Dean ads warning of an Osama Bin Laden attack had gone up on air. By comparison, this primary is being fought with kid gloves. But that doesn't mean that no one is buying a round of shots in an attempt to seal the deal. Push polling is up in Iowa - with Edwards and Obama as the targets (although the firm in question probably needs to learn to pronounce Paul Krugman's name). Strangely, the attack on Edwards is that he wants to get out of Iraq too quickly, an unlikely line of attack in a state with an anti-war presence like Iowa's.

The fingerprints on that attack look like Hillary Clinton's or one of her many allies (although the poll could easily be designed to build an anti-Hillary backlash by making it appear that she's going negative).

Still, for the most part - this is a good clean move.

Who Has the Moves on the Dance Floor?

The size of rallies in closing days can be a big signal about closing strength - so the question is, who is bringing the most people out to dance? John Edwards is bringing out big crowds, Barack may be bringing bigger ones.

Who Has Dibs on the Sloppy Seconds?

The Iowa Bar is special, 'cause they don't allow small after parties. In other words, you've gotta be viable. That means some voters won't be going home with the one that brung 'em. Especially those folks polling below 15% - the magical "viability" threshold that determines whether candidates are eligible for delegates from a precinct.

Those people's supporters have to go somewhere else and polling largely indicates that John Edwards is a common #2 pick. Given the breadth of his field program and the depth of many of his on-the-ground people's experience, he's even better situated to seal the deal in the waning minutes of a caucus when it matters most.

Which Way is the Crowd Swaying?

Timing is everything, especially in a three-way contest where most of the eligible voters basically like all the options. Whichever the crowd is leaning at the time the caucuses occur will make a huge difference in determining who pulls this whole thing off. While we've got four days left until folks vote, Pollster.com shows Edwards and Clinton with upwards momentum.

My Prediction?

Add up all the different factors: who's got the big mo' and the energy, who gets the support of the unviable candidates, and where the polls are going -- and my money right now is on a John Edwards upset in Iowa. My guess is that Edwards ends up with around 35% of the delegates in the state, Clinton and Obama both come in below 30%, and the field splits the rest.

Now we'll see if this prediction flops as badly as the rest I've made.