Iowa Poll: Huck, Obama Lead

Good news for Huckabee and Obama, see here and here.

via Tom Bevan, who says:

contrary to other recent polls, it contains some much needed good news for Barack Obama. Obama has picked up four points in the new poll vs one month ago while Clinton and Edwards remained flat, and second tier candidates Richardson and Biden ticked down.

For Huckabee, this was before yesterday's widely criticized press conference. There Huckabee announced, to great fanfare that he was pulling a negative ad, then showed it to reporters in what was widely regarded as a cynical attempt to manipulate the media to show the ad for free while Huckabee kept his hands clean.

This probably won't work if that was the goal, but what might happen is that Huckabee will have a day of negative news which will have the effect of lowering his expected results in Iowa. This way, if he comes out on top or even a close 2nd, he wins. In fact, going further, if Huckabee does win despite the gaffes, the negative campaigns etc., he will be stronger than ever.

Bottom line is that Huckabees reputation among the news media and establishment Republicans: Lower than ever.

Huckabees reputation among rank and file Iowa voters: Big Question Mark.

On the Democratic side we have really bad news for John Edwards who is showing as slightly behind Clinton. He needs a win in Iowa to stay alive and recent poll results were showing something of an Edwards surge. The latest Mason-Dixon poll showed a three way tie. Rather than helping to split the anti-Clinton vote, Edwards may just be helping to split the anti Obama vote.