Iowa Predictions!

Clearly, making an 11th hour set of predictions about tonight's Democrat and Republican caucuses is foolish. No one knows what is going to happen, the trends are as mixed as the messages; everyone is guessing. But let it never be said that a warning sign of folly halted us!

Here we go:

- Iowa's Caucus participation will be uber-high. Record setting. Another example that voter turnout has a direct correlation to the total amount of money spent by campaigns.
- Democrat participation will be close to 3:1 higher than the Republicans.
- The gap in Party participation will prompt pundits to drone on-and-on how this is a harbinger of a easy Democrat fall victory (their "evidence," not necessarily their prediction, will have been misread). Note: GOP Caucus participation has been in decline since 1976: 1980- 160,000; 1988 -109,00; 1996 -96,000; 2000 - 86,000.

Ok, so now for the really tough ones...

Get the new
PD toolbar!- Among Democrats, this is a two-way race for first place. First and second place will be filled by Barack Obama and John Edwards. My guess is first place goes to John Edwards (but it's hard to imagine another victory for him in this Primary process).
- Barack Obama will have more voters turnout than any candidate (as demonstrated by entrance polls).
- But Edwards will squeak out a victory by persuasion of second choice and the distribution of delegate allocation math which suppresses the impact of larger urban areas.
- Hillary Clinton will place third.
- Barack Obama will win the spin-game and get the most bounce out of Iowa.

- Among Republicans, this is a two-way race for first place. First and second place will be filled by Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. My guess is first place, regardless of the stellar mechanics by Romney, will go to Huckabee. If this occurs, irony would be if the GOP used the same rules as the Democrats, I believe Romney would prevail based upon the necessity of organization.
- Third and fourth place is a three-way race between John McCain, Ron Paul and Fred Thompson. My guess is the order goes Thompson, Paul, and McCain.
- As noted earlier, pre-Super Tuesday (Feb 5th), the GOP will only allocate 78 delegates (of 1,039). So a divided set of results leaves this race open much longer. A sequential set of similar outcomes will close the race. But at this point, two or three candidates will be viable (even without money, due to free media coverage) to compete on 2/5/2008.

Ok...now it's your turn! Join the fun and folly. What's your predictions and why?

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