New Hampshire Predictions!

Keeping the folly alive folling my post on Iowa predictions, let's do New Hampshire! The polls close in rural New Hampshire at 7pm EST and at 8pm EST in 22 of their cities and towns. The stakes are big: both races are very much in play. Like Iowa, no one knows for sure what is going to happen... it's all up to the voters in the Granite State. For the obvious:

- Big turnout. The N.H. Secretary of State suggest 500,000 people, but I think it'll be much much higher.
- Like Iowa, they'll be more Democrat ballots cast than Republican. (BTW, 1 in 4 voters in N.H. where not living there in 2000; the influx is largely Democratic voters who have moved there from the Boston market.)
- No one -- of consequence -- will drop out of the race on either side between New Hampshire and the next contests (Michigan & Nevada).

N.H. has earned a lot of money off of the TV advertising in this race. Since January of last year, 28,000 commercials have been aired according to Nielson. Clinton and Romney lead their respective Party's in individual numbers of ads aired.

Let's dig deeper!


First, a revisit of the history of the New Hampshire Primary Election (hat tip TopOfTheTicket).

Here are the past results (candidates who won both in New Hampshire and in the general election are in bold-faced capital letters; those New Hampshire victors who went on the claim their party's nomination but lost in November are in regular-face caps; those who won here but did not get nominated are in upper- and lower-case):

2004: GEORGE W. BUSH (R) - JOHN F. KERRY (D)
2000: John McCain (R) - AL GORE (D)
1996: Patrick J. Buchanan (R) - BILL CLINTON (D)
1992: GEORGE H.W. BUSH (R) - Paul E. Tsongas (D)
1988: GEORGE H.W. BUSH (R) - MICHAEL S. DUKAKIS (D)
1984: RONALD REAGAN (R) - Gary Hart (D)
1980: RONALD REAGAN (R) - JIMMY CARTER (D)
1976: GERALD R. FORD (R) - JIMMY CARTER (D)
1972: RICHARD M. NIXON (R) - Edmund S. Muskie (D)
1968: RICHARD M. NIXON (R) - Lyndon B. Johnson (D)
1964: Henry Cabot Lodge (R) - LYNDON B. JOHNSON (D)
1960: RICHARD M. NIXON (R) - JOHN F. KENNEDY (D)
1956: DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER (R) - Estes Kefauver (D)
1952: DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER (R) - Estes Kefauver (D)

Ok, enough history. Let's talk about today. Others who have walked the prediction's plank today: Captain's Quarters, Scott Elliot, and Neal Ford.

Here's my walk of the predictions plank:

Among Democrats:
- Barack Obama will place first place. He will best his closest rival by 8 or more points.
- Second place will be eeked out by Hillary Clinton who will leave a margin of error, circa 4 points, between her and John Edwards.

Among Republicans:
- Mitt Romney will squeak out a victory over McCain by a point or two. (Clearly this could be flipped).
- Putting John McCain in a close second.
- A sizable gap to the third and latter candidates which will place in the following order: Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, and Fred Thompson.

Ok...now it's your turn! Join the fun and folly. What's your predictions and why?

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