Hillary Stuns Pundits, Pollsters in NH

Sorry for the late start, folks, I had to go to 3 different stores to find tin foil. Tonight's the night. Will Hillary fold up like so much Origami? Will John Edwards' grassroots appeal keep him on Barack Obama's heels, or even vault him into a lead?

For results, I'll be consulting Brave New Films and The Young Turks' Live online coverage and Politico. Let the pigeons loose!


With 9.3% of precincts reporting, Hillary has a razor-thin lead over Barack Obama, 37.47% to 36.49%, with Edwards trailing in the teens so far. So far, "Other" is on a pace to equal or eclipse Rudy Giuliani's Iowa showing. More after the jump.
With almost 11% reporting, Hillary's lead is over 2 points. Early returns are, of course, poor indicators, but maybe reports of Hillary's death were exaggerated. What would a defeat here do to Obama? People on the ground report high turnout, which should benefit Barack, but without the 2nd choice rule of the caucuses, perhaps the 3rd tier candidates are pulling some of Obama's margin.

With 12.3% in, Hillary's margin is almost 3 and a half points. It's still waaay early, and if you split Richardson's 4 1/4%, Kucinich's 2.06%, Gravel's .14%, and David Hasselhoff, et al's 1% between Edwards and Obama, you get closer to a dead heat. Is this buyer's remorse on Obama? Is it "Guess who's Coming to New Hampshire?"

John Edwards, meanwhile, is pulling 16.81%, not the stunning upset that Iowa portended, but very solid. His numbers are creeping slowly up as more precincts report in.

"Hasselhoff, etc." has overtaken Kucinich, 2% to 1.91%.

With 14.28% reporting, Hillary's lead is over 4 points, reaching "statistically significant" territory. I know it's not my beat, but RomneyGirl, what happens to Mitt now? Also, Ron Paul is confounding my predictions of a mid-double-digit showing.

MSNBC has called New Hampshire for McCain, which is a good thing for the Democrats. All eyes will be on this very tight race tonight.

Keep in mind, although Iowa's final tally shifted significantly from the early results, there is no 2nd choice round in a primary. This is likely to be a very close finish.

There's going to be a lot of speculation about what happened tonight, how did Hillary rise, Phoenix-like, from the ashes? Does this say something about Hillary, or the media's talent for predictions? I do think that the anti-Hillary elements in the media may have been pushing the ball a little too hard, and ended up rallying her support. With 24% reporting, Hillary leads by 5 points.

With 26% reporting, Obama has slipped below 35% at 34.51, and Hillary is at 39.58. Edwards is relatively stable at 16.68%. This showing by Hillary shouldn't hurt Obama too much, unless a narrative emerges that perhaps race played a factor. A lot of people said that Iowa gave more black voters the confidence to flip to Obama from Clinton.

Richardson is "surging", up to almost 5%, while Kucinich continues to seesaw with Sinbad and Co. With about 9%, the bottom tier may be pulling from Obama and Edwards, more likely from Edwards. When I spoke to Edwards strategist Joe Trippi last night, he was wisely excited at the prospect of a narrowed field.

39.5 to 36, Hillary's lead has narrowed slightly.

Obama's back to within 3 points, 39 1/4 to 36 1/4. Edwards is at 16.66, sure to scare evangelical voters.

MSNBC reports a 2% margin at 9:30
between Hillary at 39% and Barack at 37. Edwards is steady at 16.68%, 41% reporting.

This close race is being characterized as stunning, but I'm starting to feel like the sucker in a 3-card Monty game.

Also, based on the numbers so far, New Hampshire turned out 60-40 in favor of the Democrats. McCain is celebrating a crown made of straw.

Still too close to call. This primary is an example of the deleterious effect of the insubstantial media coverage on this process. Did Barack's voters stay home because of the fait accompli reporting? Did Hillary's supporters rally?

Edwards is steady at 17-ish. In a 3-way race, it is conceivable that with Obama and Hillary possibly splitting the black vote, Edwards could hang in there in the South and pick up enough delegates to be a force in a floor fight.

Chris Matthews is trying to count John Edwards out after tonight. It would be nice for John Edwards if the third tier went away, but considering the funding gap, he's doing very well.

Hillary's lead is holding at 3 and a half points. Although slim, it looks like it will hold. I predict a lot of talk about "momentum" in what is actually a razor-thin race. Edwards' camp says they're in it for the long haul, but if he can't crack the top 2, it seems likely his support will break for Obama, so Hillary may be borrowing time from John.

Edwards is about to speak on MSNBC.

"48 states left to go."

I spoke with several female co-workers today who are not very engaged politically, and they all expressed a strong desire to elect a woman president. I think the relentless hammering at Hillary by the media has rallied many to her cause. I've also noted a drastic uptick in pro-Hillary comments on this blog.

John is staying in. He may lack Barack Obama's oratory skill, but the substance of his speeches is compelling.

FYI, I am deleting any and all false references to candidates' loyalty, religion, etc., that are circulating via email. The newest version says it cites snopes.com, but snopes actually says it's false. Don't bother posting it.

MSNBC calls New Hampshire for Hillary. 10:32 pm. Russert says it's the gender gap.

Olbermann says we should see what happens in the whole race instead of just kicking the ball that's in front of us. Ya think?

Barack is about to deliver his concession speech.

"Congrats to Hillary!" "Hey, remember when you used to think I would lose bad in NH?"

"Something is happening..." Even in defeat, the guy talks like a winner. "Change is what's happening in America!"

Healthcare is resonating hard with voters, and the Republicans have brought a knife to that gunfight.

Rudy, he's talking to you! "Don't use 9/11 as a way to scare up votes!"

Ooo, David Knowles concedes! That's OK, Dave, my predictions didn't work out, either.

Look, check the issues and vote your conscience, because we have no idea.

Hillary's doing her victory dance. Oh, they helped her find her voice! What is she coming back from? One thing I think I did get right, Drudge and others were pushing the ball a little too hard, and the ball pushed back.

Now that it's over, the numbers are tightening a little bit, to a 2.89% margin. It might not change the result, but if the margin shrinks a little more by morning, it's good for Obama, cooling off Hillary's head of steam a little.

With 89% reporting, Hillary's margin is at 2 and 2/3 points. If Obama can close to a number closer to 2%, there will be significant spin value in that for him.

Okay, with 95% reporting, Hillary's lead seems stable at 2.78%. It doesn't seem likely it will shrink enough to have an impact by morning. I'm going to bed.

Ironically, the media's horrible job at analyzing this primary will end up benefiting them. Being so horribly wrong on yesterday's story becomes a big story today. Political coverage is eating itself. Good night.

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