Romney Will Win Michigan

In the spirit of bold and foolish predictions, here are my Michigan predictions. To start with, Mitt Romney wins the GOP primary contest.

The two major stories that will be missed by the mainstream media are:
- Why Mitt Romney won.
- The Democratic race for uncommitted.

Turnout will be decent but not a blow-out like New Hampshire and Iowa.
- Likely in the neighborhood of 1.5 million (in a state of 10 million).
- Republicans will outnumber Democrats for the first time this cycle but by not by the margin people had thought.

Let's dig deeper.The mainstream's media narrative on Romney's Michigan win will include:
- Hometown favorite (he was born in Detroit and his Dad was a very popular 3-term Governor).
- Romney ran for Governor, not President in Michigan (whatever that means).
- Independents didn't save McCain.

The reality here, in Michigan, is much different than in 49 other states. Michigan is experienced at the issue that could override Iraq in the November election - jobs and the economy. Romney understands this and talked to voter's concerns. John McCain's inability to ride any horse but the War on Terror and his mythic "straight talk" hurt him in the Great Lakes State with a single-state recession where people's kitchen table concerns outweigh lofty Senatorial gab fabs. If it's "economy, stupid!" then Romney is the suit that fits.

As always, message matters.

In addition to McCain's Michigan campaign being out of touch, they dropped the ball with organization. They had none. It was paper tiger of recycled GOP luminaries. To use Hillary Clinton's charge against Barack Obama, all show-horse.

Romney had an organization that did a ton of phone calling (too wet and cold for door-to-door in MI). The biggest advantage Romney had is the smarts to do a thorough mail program to reach absentee voters. He did a solid seven plus contacts to all likely GOP absentee voters. McCain did not.

The only real "negative" campaign waged in Michigan was in the mail and phones. And it was under the banner of McCain against Romney in the mail and both McCain and Mike Huckabee against Romney on paid phone calls. Much of it was too snaky and childish to have impact.

Other predictions:
- Huckabee, who has outperformed the polling in both Iowa and New Hampshire won't in Michigan he's back to a niche candidate along with Mr. Paul.
- Ron Paul will out perform Rudy but still end up with no delegates.

On the Democrat side, because the DNC eliminated (for now) Michigan's delegates, and major candidates like Barack Obama and John Edwards asked to be removed from the voter's choice, today's Democrat primary is largely ignored. But a late surge for voting "uncommitted" meaning don't vote for Hillary Clinton who remains on the ballot, could hit 10 percent or more. That's a bit of a warning sign for the Clinton campaign.

Your turn to join the folly! Who will Michigan's primary (and why)?

(NOTE: This post is not an endorsement! Also, there are plenty of smarter people making different predictions!)