Jackpot: Hillary Wins Nevada/Whither Edwards?

This is a live blog. Although the winner has been projected, I wanted to take time with the analysis while making the results available.

With 90.7% of precincts reporting, Hillary Clinton has won the hotly contested Nevada Democratic Caucuses. What does this mean for the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination? What's next for John Edwards? What the F___ is a caucus, anyway? More to come.
Update: With 90.19% of precincts reporting, Dennis Kucinich now has .05% of the Nevada vote. No word yet on how much of that was from the Area 51 caucus site.

I looked everywhere for a pithy summary of what exactly a caucus is, and I found this one, from the Lahonton Valley News Service, of all places. I know, I know, they're known way more for their Middle East bureaus.

It's not that I didn't know what a caucus was, but I knew it in the way that I know what LaCrosse is (that's like a cross between Jai Alai, field hockey, and that Star Trek episode where Kirk has to fight Spock.). The level of detail just isn't there. For example, if candidates who earn less than 15% get switched to a second choice, how come John Edwards has 4% of the vote? And how could Edwards get only 4% after polling at 27%?

Well, Edwards gets to keep the votes at any of the 520 caucus sites where he earns more than 15%. This has the effect of screwing Obama and setting Edwards up as a kingmaker. When Barack sees that he lost by almoet the exact margin as Edwards' total, he's got to see the wisdom of dealing this down to a two-person race.

RomneyGirl, very funny comments on all 3 posts.

Back to John Edwards. Headlines of a 4% finish are not good, even if grossly misleading. As Edwards' new ad points out, the media doesn't seem to have much interest in a 3-way race, so expect to see little explanation of Edwards' finish.

As you may know, I like all 3 leading Democrats, but I think Edwards is the best on the substance, so I would like to see him do well. With 1,688 delegates to be awarded on Super Tuesday, Edwards could still win the nomination, but with the constant coverage and the importance of momentum, the time may be now for Edwards to broker himself a spot on an Obama/Edwards ticket.

In order to apply the maximum leverage, he would need to do it before Super Tuesday. That makes South Carolina very important for John Edwards. Expectations are relatively high for him in the state, so a poor showing could evaporate any influence he might have with Obama. On the other hand, a win in South Carolina would rejuvenate his campaign hopes and set the table for a dogfight on Super Tuesday, perhaps even at the Democratic National Convention.

With Edwards polling at 13% in the latest poll of South Carolinians, a win seems unlikely. Obama holds a 9 point lead in that poll, but with conditions changing so quickly, and with the New Hampshire debacle fresh in his mind, he would do well to go into Super Tuesday with an Edwards-aided landslide in South Carolina.

The other story emerging here is that women and hispanics broke heavily for Hillary Clinton, according to MSNBC. Based also on an unscientific observation of comments on my Hillary stories, there does seem to have been a swing toward Hillary from women. The AP has entrance polling here.

So, a narrow victory for Hillary in Nevada, while not a knockout by any means, does aid her campaign's momentum. Still, South Carolina is likely to put the brakes on that.

This defeat shouldn't hurt Obama too much, conversely, since it was so close, and since Nevada is not exactly known as a hotbed of political thought. The fact that it is his second consecutive loss is likely to be downplayed by a media interested in a horserace.

John Edwards' chances for the Democratic Presidential nomination took a significant hit here, as news consumers are unlikely to look beyond the 4% finish and unspin the crazy caucus math.

To me, that makes the big winner here "John Edwards for Vice-President." Although I think making a deal now is the smart thing to do, I don't expect it to happen before Super Tuesday. For Edwards' sake, I hope Obama still needs him after that.

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