NV & SC Predictions

Keeping the tradition of folly alive by making last-minute predictions on these primaries, let's take a run at today's GOP and Democratic Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina Republican primary.

First, today's schedule:

- The GOP South Carolina primary, polls open 7AM-7PM ET
- Nevada GOP caucuses, start at 9AM PT (12PM ET)
- Nevada Dem caucuses, start at 11:30AM PT (2:30PM ET)

First, in Nevada. The easiest prediction to make is the GOP pick. It'll be Mitt Romney followed by John McCain. The latest polling averages show Romney at 25.7%, McCain 20.7%, Huckabee 12.3%, Thompson 10.7%, Paul 7.3%.
For the Democrats in Nevada, the race is much tighter, hard-fought and contentious. Conventional wisdom gives it to Clinton. And for good reason, the polls show an average of Clinton 37.8%, Obama 33.8, and Edwards 18. However, organization matters and Obama is showing some late signs of having done a decent job. Out on a limb, I predict the placement of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton followed by Edwards.

All eyes tonight will be on the GOP tonight as the first in the Southern primary comes to a close. In 2000, South Carolina was the Waterloo for John McCain. Tonight it's on the cusp of giving him a renewed life and bump into Florida and beyond. The current surveys show McCain with +1 over Huckabee at 26.9% and Romney at 14.7%, and Thompson 14.6%. Again, like in Nevada, organization and energy matter. Huckabee has it, McCain doesn't. Still out on a limb, I predict the fall-out Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney.

Other smarter folks have made predictions here. What's your take? Who will win and why? And if you're in Nevada or South Carolina, who'd you vote for?