Next Battleground: GOP in the Sunshine State

McCain is already in Florida, hoping to ride the wave of his victory in South Carolina onward to a follow-on success in the Sunshine state. However, the closed Florida GOP primary is a Republican-only event, which may cost McCain vital support among barred independent voters.

However, Florida could also serve as the stage of Rudy Giuliani's spectacular entrance into the Republican primaries. America's mayor has generally sat out the primary season thus far, staking everything upon a superb emergence in Florida - which could carry him to victory on Super Tuesday.

Yet again, Mitt Romney has invested a fortune in the state, and is benefited by the conventional wisdom that McCain and Giuliani will be drawing from the same vote pool. Such a weakening of the opposition may pave the way for Romney to pick up his 4th primary victory.

Polls predict a fiercely contested battle among the entire GOP field (courtesy of Real Clear Politics):

UPDATE: Rasmussen is about to report that they have Romney at 25%, McCain at 20% and Giuliani at 19%. Romney has picked up 7% over the past week, while McCain and Giuliani have each gained 1%. The race is just getting interesting!

Giuliani is the only candidate whose prospects depend upon Florida. America's mayor must arise as a serious contender in Florida. A poor showing would likely end his candidacy as voters in subsequent states read a week of headlines entitled: "Is Giuliani Out?" On the other hand, a Giuliani victory does not necessarily propel him above the other candidates - it merely muddies the GOP field further by adding yet another candidate to the equation.

Lastly, it should be noted that Florida is presently under penalty by the Republican National Committee as a result of having advanced the date of the GOP primary. The consequence is that Florida will award only 57 delegates in a winner-take-all finale next week - half of the state's full 114 contingent. However, the penalty may be waived prior to the nominating convention, and is unlikely to lessen the importance of the state as a springboard into the chaos of Super Tuesday.