Next Battleground: GOP in the Sunshine State

Justin Paulette

Justin Paulette is an attorney practicing international law in bella Italia. He hails from the great Buckeye State, "The Heart of it All," the only state with a bridge which you can cross and still be on the same side of the river, home of the hot dog, pop top soda can and the largest basket in the world! Though he's spent the past decade jet-setting across the Atlantic with one foot in London and the other on Capitol Hill, he still fancies himself a Mid-western, God-fearing, role-playing geek at heart.

Posted:

01/21/08

McCain is already in Florida, hoping to ride the wave of his victory in South Carolina onward to a follow-on success in the Sunshine state. However, the closed Florida GOP primary is a Republican-only event, which may cost McCain vital support among barred independent voters.

However, Florida could also serve as the stage of Rudy Giuliani's spectacular entrance into the Republican primaries. America's mayor has generally sat out the primary season thus far, staking everything upon a superb emergence in Florida - which could carry him to victory on Super Tuesday.

Yet again, Mitt Romney has invested a fortune in the state, and is benefited by the conventional wisdom that McCain and Giuliani will be drawing from the same vote pool. Such a weakening of the opposition may pave the way for Romney to pick up his 4th primary victory.

Polls predict a fiercely contested battle among the entire GOP field (courtesy of Real Clear Politics):

Poll	Date	McCain	Giuliani	Romney	Huckabee	Thompson	Paul	Spread
RCP Average	01/09 - 01/16	23.2	20.3	18.0	17.3	8.5	5.0	McCain +2.9

UPDATE: Rasmussen is about to report that they have Romney at 25%, McCain at 20% and Giuliani at 19%. Romney has picked up 7% over the past week, while McCain and Giuliani have each gained 1%. The race is just getting interesting!

McCain and Romney are generally in the same boat. A solid success might lend to their momentum, but Florida is unlikely to establish either as a sure thing going into Super Tuesday. And while a strong showing by Huchabee would greatly bolster the dip in confidence many feel about his prospects, many of his supporters have accepted the inevitable in Florida and are already turning toward Super Tuesday as their final proving-ground.

Giuliani is the only candidate whose prospects depend upon Florida. America's mayor must arise as a serious contender in Florida. A poor showing would likely end his candidacy as voters in subsequent states read a week of headlines entitled: "Is Giuliani Out?" On the other hand, a Giuliani victory does not necessarily propel him above the other candidates - it merely muddies the GOP field further by adding yet another candidate to the equation.

Lastly, it should be noted that Florida is presently under penalty by the Republican National Committee as a result of having advanced the date of the GOP primary. The consequence is that Florida will award only 57 delegates in a winner-take-all finale next week - half of the state's full 114 contingent. However, the penalty may be waived prior to the nominating convention, and is unlikely to lessen the importance of the state as a springboard into the chaos of Super Tuesday.