Zogby: Edwards Ahead of Hillary in SC

This may seem like going out on a limb, but if you look closer, it takes significant changes to move the RCP average more than 3 points when only 18% of the dataset is from after the debate. With two days to go until the primary, there isn't the luxury of waiting around for more polls to come in.

From a purely horse-race perspective, this could signal a shift in support from Hillary to John Edwards in the South Carolina. With Edwards getting all kinds of publicity for being "the adult" in the room, that shift could become much more dramatic by Saturday. The Clinton campaign seemed to be OK with conceding the state to Barack Obama, but if Edwards can pick off significant numbers of Hillary voters here, they might live to regret that decision.

In the only post-debate poll, Hillary's lead over Edwards is down to 6 points, when she had been more than doubling him before the debate. A close 3rd for Edwards, or even a stunning 2nd, is well within Edwards' grasp, and would be disastrous to Clinton's momentum going into Super Tuesday.

Edwards' rise can be chalked up to a few factors, not the least of which is his debate performance. Clearly, he was the winner of the Clinton-Obama duel. Additionally, he has been getting a lot of publicity, not just from the debate, but from Bill O'Reilly's ill-advised one-man feud against Edwards and Homeless veterans. Edwards talked about these things, plus the effectiveness of his message, on last night's Countdown.


The fact that this shift in support for Edwards is eroding Hillary's numbers but not Barack Obama's could also be attributed to several factors. Edwards' chief adviser, Joe Trippi, said earlier this month that a narrowed field favors the candidate with a message, as oposed to a well-funded candidate, and it appears that dynamic is coming into play here. If this trend continues, I expect the narrative to emerge that this is a validation of Edwards' message and a repudiation of the Clinton's style of campaigning. That may not be entirely fair.

Although this is a clear positive for John Edwards, the erosion for Hillary and not Barack Obama could easily be an indicator of nothing more than softer support for Hillary in a state where Barack Obama holds a huge demographical advantage. Still, in analyzing the debate, the first scenario seems more likely.

The popular frame for the Obama/Clinton brawl at the debate is that it hurts both candidates, but as the facts emerge, it seems that Barack's brickbats were largely accurate and substantive, whereas Hillary was just fighting dirty and counting on the public to look away from both candidates. Furthermore, former President Bill Clinton continues to stir the pot, confirming for many that the Clintons are the aggressor and that Obama is simply and reasonably defending himself.

A 2nd place finish by John Edwards in South Carolina would be a stunning reversal, and would change the entire face of the campaign. In the pressure-cooker of today's compressed news cycle, such a result could be devastating to the Clinton campaign. We'll continue to watch those polls going into Saturday, and we'll see if Hillary rethinks her abandonment of the state and decides to swing back there.

Update: Thanks to a reader, "wetheleaders", for pointing me in the right direction. From Zogby:

"Edwards, meanwhile, has had his second good day since the Monday night CNN debate, in which he delivered a strong performance. He hit 19% support on Tuesday alone and then 27% support on Wednesday alone. And, on Wednesday alone, he pulled ahead of Clinton overall. He has pulled ahead among whites. Could he pull ahead of Clinton and finish in second place? Even with a strong showing here, where does he go next to take advantage of the momentum?

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Update: 11:04 am 1/25/08 Lots of great comments. Megan, allow me to explain. The headline was changed several hours after I wrote the post, when I found the updated Zogby numbers. At first, I was trying to identify a very preliminary trend, and the headline was, "Edwards Debate Bounce Hurting Hillary?" I hope that clears it up a little.

I covered the Republican debate last night, and Ron Paul clearly won, yet the media completely ignored him. John Edwards also wins every debate, and when people actually hear his message, they gravitate towards him. This is clear evidence that we need public financing of campaigns and an end to media consolidation.

I haven't checked polling data today yet, but if there's a significant change, I'll probably do another story on it. Still, I will be updating this post to respond to comments as long as they're still coming in.

Real quick note, I have stated before, and do again, that I will be deleting any comments that are proven falsehoods being spread by email, so just don't bother. If you get an email like that, check the facts before you annoy 25 of your friends by forwarding it.

Update: New comments from Edwards Campaign here.