John Edwards continues to grow his support in South Carolina on the heels of Monday's debate, placing Hillary Clinton in danger of a disastrous 3rd place finish in Saturday's Democratic Presidential Primary. Meanwhile, Clinton, who had seemed ready to concede the state to Barack Obama, leaving Bill Clinton to fight a rear-guard action while she concentrated on Super Tuesday states, has returned to South Carolina to try and ward off the Edwards threat.
From Zogby:
The real movement here is by John Edwards, who is the only one who continues to gain ground in our three-day tracking poll. His increase appears to be coming from African American voters who are slowly making up their minds – he is up to 7%. Can he catch Clinton by Saturday's vote, perhaps bumping her from a second-place finish? Perhaps that is why she has returned to the state to campaign.
Hmmm. This all sounds strangely familiar... more to come.Forgive me for a little self-back-patting. I seldom get predictions right, so cut me some slack here. It's nice to see what I said yesterday being repeated as today's cutting edge.
So, what does this all mean? Well, the mainstream media is behind on this as usual, so Edwards' surge is not going to be aided by pundit predictions of success. Instead, it seems Edwards' message is carrying him up in the polls, a message that is getting out because of his positive performance at the debate. I expect that by the end of business today, somebody will float this headline:
Does 3rd Place in S.C. Doom Hillary?
Of course, those kinds of headlines are what actually could doom Hillary. It didn't work in New Hampshire, because she won, but it would be really tough for her to weather an upset going into Super Tuesday.
As for that Robert Novak column floating the idea of a secret deal between Edwards and Obama, all I can say is, consider the source. His article is thinly and poorly sourced, and it makes no sense at all unless John Edwards were to drop out by Super Tuesday. Considering his current surge in the polls, an AG spot would be a cheap payoff. A VP nod, I could almost believe. Is Novak, like Drudge often does, trying to push the ball here? Who can figure out how these guys think?
Here's Edwards' new ad, called "Grownup", highlighting his great moment at the debate.
I'll probably post it in a separate story later, but I thought you'd like to see it.
Update: Teacher, your analysis makes sense, but it's the whirling dervish of media coverage that drives "momentum." A third place finish in SC would be a stunning reversal for Clinton and would hurt her going into Super Tuesday. She had managed expectations with regard to Obama, but not Edwards.
On that subject, David S, I do stand by the characterization, as evidenced by Hillary's return to SC to try and put out the fire.
His website says in effect you'll pay lower premiums as an incentive to do as you're told. Oh, but this will only affect poor people who can't afford private insurance, so if you're loaded don't worry. Expect the same from Hillary. Edwards just deciphered it that sunny day in Iowa.
Election 08; It never seizes to amaze me how dumb down and ignorant the American public is. Hillary, and Obama. This is all we hear about from the corporate media. If you just stop and think about it; there is a reason why ( on the Democratic side), that the two candidates are being pushed so hard, for so long, while all the others are cast aside. Hillary, and Obama are already bought and sold by the powers that be. This is obvious. I would say that our best policy as the voting public is to vote for the candidate that the Corporate media has tried to ignore. In this 08 election, given the clowns that are in it, and the fact that George Bush has lowered the bar so far down that anyone would be better; that; John Edwards is the only real choice we have. Hillary & Obama are acting like spoiled brats. Can we PLEASE vote for an adult this time around?
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1-4-Romney
12:53PM Jan 25th 2008
Alright Tommy! This may be just the boost Edwards needs. If he can beat Hill for second... it would give him a great position going into Super Tue. If he can pull out of SC # 1 then we are looking at a trio all the way to the convention. I am glad for you, but I still prefer Hill- despite Bill.
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Kitty
1:00PM Jan 25th 2008
WE ALL WITNESSED EDWARDS TRYING TO HUMP OBAMA'S LEG through the debates while tag-teaming Sen. Clinton, and now we know why.
Bob Novak reports today that OBAMA HAS PROMISED EDWARDS AN ATTORNEY GENERAL position, and Hillary should call him on it at the next debate.
The media ALSO rubber-stamped Bush into office NO QUESTIONS ASKED and just look what America ended up with. I see the very same arrogance and inability to accept any criticism whatsoever from both Obama and Edwards as I do in Bush and Cheney.
JUST SAY NO TO OBAMA'S LYING HYPOCRISY
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Hill N Bill 2008
1:46PM Jan 25th 2008
Someone stick a baby binky in Obama's pie hole. His bitching, moaning and whining is getting very annoying.
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Hill N Bill 2008
1:47PM Jan 25th 2008
Someone stick a baby binky in Obama's pie hole. His bitching, moaning and whining is getting very annoying.
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Oct2nov1971
1:49PM Jan 25th 2008
Someone stick a baby binky in Obama's pie hole. His bitching, moaning and whining is getting very annoying.
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Oct2nov1971
1:58PM Jan 25th 2008
Edwards is a 2 face, neck biting crafty Southern gent who CAN'T be trusted. He needs to stop being a stubborn hard a@@ and get off the Dem candidate panel. HE IS FADING AWAY!
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poppie0144
1:59PM Jan 25th 2008
in order to run as a dem you must be for a womens right to kill,and be the one who can spend the most tax money letting the goverment ran more.by the was ask the clintons about infousa.
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David S.
2:01PM Jan 25th 2008
Well, I don't know about Edwards "surging." This was just a tease to get us to read the article, right? No, really, I did read the polls and I am impressed. I am just over the Clinton's, and I am beginning to think an Obama/Edwards ticket would be fine.
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Teacher
2:13PM Jan 25th 2008
Let's see... Hillary has won every contest except Iowa, yet, if she loses South Carolina she's doomed? Are you crazy? You are certainly not logical. The democratic vote in South carolina is 50% black. Of course Obama is gonna win because the black population will vote for him out of pride, so they say. John Edwards was born in the state and has family and friends there. He should at least come in second, right? Trust this older history teacher. Super Tuesday will go for Clinton all the way.
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JBRACALE
2:49PM Jan 25th 2008
MAYBE ALL THE CANDIDATES SHOULD TAKE A FEW MIN. AND SIT DOWN AND PLAY ONE OF THE BEST SONGS OUT THIS YR BY BROOKS&DUNN( GOD MUST BE BUSY) IT SAYS ALOT OF WHAT IS GOING ON IN THIS WORLD I AM A CLINTON PERSON AND I THINK THAT THEY ARE COMING DOWN ON HER AND NOT OBAMA! AND EDWARDS IS HERE FOR THE "LEFT OVERS"
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Gary
2:55PM Jan 25th 2008
The choice in this election is simple. If we want a president who will lead America to the big, bold changes we need and change the conversation in America, Democrats should choose the candidate who has led the field in ideas and shaped the conversation in this race so far.
On the Democratic side, John Edwards, although never the front-runner, has been driving his party's policy agenda. He's done it again on economic stimulus: last month, before the economic consensus turned as negative as it now has, he proposed a stimulus package including aid to unemployed workers, aid to cash-strapped state and local governments, public investment in alternative energy, and other measures
The fact remains that the Edwards campaign has set the domestic policy agenda for the entire field. He was the first with a bold universal health care plan, the first with an ambitious climate change proposal that called for cap-and-trade, and the leader on reforming predatory lending practices and raising the minimum wage to a level where it regains its lost purchasing power
John Edwards has led the other candidates in standing up for progressive change. In this campaign, the other candidates have followed John's lead in talking about the special interests -- but the special interests understand the difference between rhetoric and reality. That's why corporate lobbyists are united against John Edwards.
Here's the bottom line in this election. We need a president who has the vision to put forth bold, progressive solutions to the challenges facing America in the 21st century. John Edwards has shown he has that vision -- and he has led on it throughout this campaign.
John Edwards has stated that, as president, he will require the use of safe, renewable energy sources like wind, solar power and biomass to generate 25% of the nation's electricity by 2025. In the first 100 days of his presidency, John will send legislation to Congress to halt global warming and achieve energy independence.
John has promised to invest $1 billion a year to develop the ability to permanently store carbon emissions and ban the construction of new coal plants that cannot capture their own carbon.
And, as president, John Edwards would invest an additional $1 billion to help U.S. automakers advance the latest technology -- including biofuels, hybrid and electric cars, ultra-light materials and drivetrain improvements -- to ensure the world's most fuel-efficient cars are made in America by union workers.
And because John Edwards has not accepted a dime from Washington lobbyists or special interest PACs, he has a bold, transformational plan to take on the big oil companies, polluters and power companies to address the great environmental challenges of our lifetime.
John Edwards is the only one that will fight poverty and bring health care and education to the poor & middle class of America. John Edwards would be the best President for all of America, anything less will be as bad as keeping Bush in office forever.
America deserves honest men of integrity that will fight for all Americans, and Edwards is a true patriot that can make America great. He has the substinance, determination, and will to fight greed, corruption and end the outsourcing of our jobs.
His economic, education, health and welfare policies are now being copied by all the canidates. Edwards spoke out months and even years before the others.
America needs to think about why the "Washington Greed, Corruption, Large Corporations and Media" are trying to make this a two candidate Democratic race?
Edwards is the only Democrat able to win the Presidency, as polls have showed that any Republican nominated will beat Clinton and/or Obama.
An Edwards presidency will create American jobs for Americans by ending the outsourcing of our jobs lost through NAFTA and CAFTA. It will end the greed and corruption of large corporations and Washington politicians.
End the $700 million per day wasted in Iraq and invest in America, America can prosper in a global economy without outsourcing our jobs
Vote for jobs for the workers of America, healthcare and education for the middle class by endorsing a true patriot of integrity and honesty for America, John Edwards
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ruthe
3:08PM Jan 25th 2008
novak is an old senile man..he's also obnoxious..and wrong most of the time i'm with you edwards is the man hillbilly is a lying screaming hypocrite obama is playing the race card even though he says he's not edwards is the only democratic candidate that can beat any republican the republicans are chomping at the bit for hillbilly to be the candidate they'll destroy her
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ruthe
3:11PM Jan 25th 2008
kitty not only are you vulgar you're a moron
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D. L. GRAHAM
3:35PM Jan 25th 2008
"TEDDY" KENNEDY & " SUPER DELEGATES BOBBY, MARTIN AND JOHN!!
"Teddy" Kennedy is the one who must be held to account for the lack of control over the Nastiest, Racist Campaign in modern history. The words were "Bobby, Martin, and John", no were due you hear Bill. The Kennedy family paid in 'Blood" for advancing in bringing this country together and setting The Democratic Party on the part of the inclusive tent. Snowman Slick Willie William Jefferson Clinton, is degrading the Office of President of The United States even today, and tearing apart what the Kennedy Family and Martin Luther King Jr., created. THE SHAME LAY WITH "TEDDY" KENNEDY AND THE SUPER DELEGATES!!
Hillary Diane Rodham-Clinton "I WILL FIGHT!" Republican Vs Democratic, (THEM & I), "The Vast Right Wing Conspiracy", Status Quo! (I) will give you the abilty to fight for change
"BARRY" OBAMA "I WILL UNITE" I will work to bring Independents, Republicans, and Democratic together, (US & WE), "The Untapped American Sprit of Hope", Change! (WE) shall work (TOGETHER) to achieve a new and lasting CHANGE!
When will "Teddy" Kennedy, step up as both Bobby and John did to take actions that they knew were right and to correct wrong! The tearing apart of what the Kennedy Family Built by the Co-Candidate Snowman Slick Willie William Jefferson Clinon of Hillary Diane Rodham-Clinton, MUST BE STOPPED!
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REEN
3:39PM Jan 25th 2008
EDWARDS IS THE ONLY REAL CHOICE THIS ELECTION......HE IS THE TRUE INNOVATOR AND LEADER IN CHANGE...AND WE WILL ALL BE MISSING THE BOAT IF WE DO NOT NOMINATE AND ELECT HIM TO GUIDE US INTO THE FUTURE...
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CALVIN
3:43PM Jan 25th 2008
obama and edward 08
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PeaceofChristBwithU
4:31PM Jan 25th 2008
I do not trust Hilary Clinton. Barack Obama seems like an honest, caring man, and I really like his stand on the war. John McCain was a war hero and I believe he is honest, but I fear from his appearance that he will not make it through 2 terms- and all the potential VPs look sooooo scary.
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kim
4:50PM Jan 25th 2008
This is an idiotic non-story. South Carolina does not matter. Hillary will win big time on Feb. 5 no matter what happens in South Carolina. By the way, my sources on the ground in South Carolina want some of whatever Tommy is smoking. "African American voters are choosing Edwards over Obama..." ??? Tommy is pathetically trying to get noticed and create a story her. There is none. There is NO SURGE OF AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTERS TO EDWARDS. Tommy, consider journalism rehab.