Edwards Surging in SC; Hillary Returns

John Edwards continues to grow his support in South Carolina on the heels of Monday's debate, placing Hillary Clinton in danger of a disastrous 3rd place finish in Saturday's Democratic Presidential Primary. Meanwhile, Clinton, who had seemed ready to concede the state to Barack Obama, leaving Bill Clinton to fight a rear-guard action while she concentrated on Super Tuesday states, has returned to South Carolina to try and ward off the Edwards threat.

From Zogby:

The real movement here is by John Edwards, who is the only one who continues to gain ground in our three-day tracking poll. His increase appears to be coming from African American voters who are slowly making up their minds – he is up to 7%. Can he catch Clinton by Saturday's vote, perhaps bumping her from a second-place finish? Perhaps that is why she has returned to the state to campaign.

Hmmm. This all sounds strangely familiar... more to come.Forgive me for a little self-back-patting. I seldom get predictions right, so cut me some slack here. It's nice to see what I said yesterday being repeated as today's cutting edge.

So, what does this all mean? Well, the mainstream media is behind on this as usual, so Edwards' surge is not going to be aided by pundit predictions of success. Instead, it seems Edwards' message is carrying him up in the polls, a message that is getting out because of his positive performance at the debate. I expect that by the end of business today, somebody will float this headline:

Does 3rd Place in S.C. Doom Hillary?

Of course, those kinds of headlines are what actually could doom Hillary. It didn't work in New Hampshire, because she won, but it would be really tough for her to weather an upset going into Super Tuesday.

As for that Robert Novak column floating the idea of a secret deal between Edwards and Obama, all I can say is, consider the source. His article is thinly and poorly sourced, and it makes no sense at all unless John Edwards were to drop out by Super Tuesday. Considering his current surge in the polls, an AG spot would be a cheap payoff. A VP nod, I could almost believe. Is Novak, like Drudge often does, trying to push the ball here? Who can figure out how these guys think?

Here's Edwards' new ad, called "Grownup", highlighting his great moment at the debate.

I'll probably post it in a separate story later, but I thought you'd like to see it.

Update: Teacher, your analysis makes sense, but it's the whirling dervish of media coverage that drives "momentum." A third place finish in SC would be a stunning reversal for Clinton and would hurt her going into Super Tuesday. She had managed expectations with regard to Obama, but not Edwards.

On that subject, David S, I do stand by the characterization, as evidenced by Hillary's return to SC to try and put out the fire.

Update: New comments from Edwards Campaign here.