South Carolina Predictions

Keeping the folly alive, here goes another set of predictions. Today, the polls open at 7am EST and close at 7pm EST for South Carolina Democrats. The stakes are 54 national delegates awarded by congressional district where a 15% viability must be met.

The easy forecast: Turnout.

Turnout for Palmetto state Democrats will outpace what Republicans saw last Saturday, by nearly 3:1. There are three contributing factors: 1) The weather is better (no snow storms), 2) The campaign was longer (more time between New Hampshire and South Carolina (for the Democrats), and 3) Like every other contest, with the exception of Michigan, the Democrats have spent more money and had a larger turnout.


The Democrat field should shake out with a Barack Obama win. The question is by what margin and what do the exit polls show was the make-up. This later part will largely determine how the mainstream media spins the win and will shape the nature of any bounce that he may or may not get.

For second place, I pick John Edwards. Not so much because I think it's likely but it's possible. Edwards did an outstanding job in Monday's debate and has been working the state very well. An upset-second place finish by Edwards will require that that he earn nearly all of the white vote in S.C. Edwards has spent more on S.C. airwaves than both Clinton and Obama, he was born there and he won it in 2004. It's do or die time for the trial lawyer from neighboring North Carolina.

Hillary Clinton will blunt most of this victory by her framing of the expectations and her shred focus on getting the delegates from Michigan and Florida back into her column (a dirty trick, but the type of move that demonstrates the difference between winning and losing).

Others are making their predictions. What are yours?