SC Dem Liveblog - Obama Wins-Clinton Jets

Good evening, fellow Primary junkies, and welcome to the South Carolina Democratic Primary liveblog. I'm going to try a few new things here. In addition to my own commentary, plus results from MSNBC and Politico, I am making available to you the live coverage from Brave New Films and The Young Turks. We'll see how good you are at multitasking. If you have to choose, read me.

I have observed, and hoped for, a John Edwards surge this week on the heels of his great debate performance on Monday. I like all three candidates, but I believe Edwards is the best on the substance. I think that the longer this is a 3-way race, the better it is for responsive politics. Enjoy The Young Turks while I get ready for the results to start coming in, and stick with me, I'll also have wrap-up analysis.

Moved the player to after the jump. Early results:
Let me know if this gets too confusing, I can dump either the video or the blog. Let's see how it goes, OK?

I had to dump the BNF blog, the size was all wrong.
6:58 OK, here are the latest poll numbers from RCP, Edwards is still trailing, but well within striking distance when you factor margin of error and undecided.

South Carolina Democratic Primary
Saturday, January 26 | Delegates at Stake: 45
Poll	Date	Sample	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Spread
RCP Average	01/15 to 01/25	-	38.4	26.8	19.2	Obama +11.6
ReutersC-Span/Zogby	01/24 - 01/25	816 LV	41	26	19	Obama +15.0
SurveyUSA	01/23 - 01/24	553 LV	43	30	24	Obama +13.0
Mason-Dixon	01/22 - 01/23	400 LV	38	30	19	Obama +8.0
Clemson	01/15 - 01/23	LV	27	20	17	Obama +7.0
Rasmussen	01/21 - 01/21	624 LV	43	28	17	Obama +15.0
See More South Carolina Democratic Primary Polls | Chart

7:02 NBC is calling it for Obama already. WTF?

7:10 MSNBC exit polling shows a pretty evenly distributed white vote, with Obama doing poorly among the old and the stupid.

7:14 CNN's exit polls show Edwards a distant third. MSNBS is spinning this as a huge loss for Hillary.

7:18 MSNBC exit polls: White voters 24% Obama 36% Clinton 29% Edwards

7:26 The AP calls it a "route" for Obama, but nobody is giving up their overall numbers, except CNN. Hillary bounced up outta SC as the polls were closing to go to Super Tuesday state Tennessee.

7:38 With 2% reporting, it's 51% Obama, 34% Clinton, and 15% Edwards. If these numbers hold up, it's disappointing for Edwards but not disastrous. A 17-point loss for Clinton is bad, but not as bad as 3rd place would have been. The fact that Obama got such a big slice of the white vote is shaping up to be the narrative du jour.


7:49 The finer numbers are fluctuating a lot, with MSNBC showing Edwards around 19%, more in line with expectations, so we'll have to see how it ends up.He ain't gonna take 2nd, and Hillary is not going to catch Barack, but the margin is going to be the story. If it holds at over 20 points for Obama, that's really bad for Hillary.

7:52 Tim Russert says that black voters saw Clinton criticism of Obama "as dissing." LOL. Tim, no matter who you are, that word doesn't have a "G" at the end. MSNBC shows a 21% lead for Obama. My son was quick to point out that Russert did not say that it was "wack."

8:05 Hillary's camp issues a statement. Will there be a speech?

1/26/2008
Statement from Hillary Clinton

"I have called Senator Obama to congratulate him and wish him well. "Thank you to the people of South Carolina who voted today and welcomed me into their homes over the last year. Your stories will stay with me well beyond this campaign and I am grateful for the support so many of you gave to me. "We now turn our attention to the millions of Americans who will make their voices heard in Florida and the twenty-two states as well as American Samoa who will vote on February 5th. "In the days ahead, I'll work to give voice to those who are working harder than ever to be heard. For those who have lost their job or their home or their health care, I will focus on the solutions needed to move this country forward. That's what this election is about. It's about our country, our hopes and dreams. Our families and our future."

If Hillary is smart, she'll do a speech, but it doesn't sound like she will. This will only come as a kiss-off and poor sportsmanship, especially in a press that is not inclined to be kind to her.

8:10 Just caught Bill Clinton's passive/aggressive marginalization of Obama. He needs to quit it. MSNBC will have Bill soon.

Another reporter asked what it said about Obama that it "took two people to beat him." Clinton again passed. "That's' just bait, too. Jesse Jackson won South Carolina twice, in '84 and '88. And he ran a good campaign. Senator Obama's run a good campaign here, he's run a good campaign everywhere."

Bill Clinton speaks. He name-checks Florida. Is that allowed? If this is a substitute for a concession speech, it is a really bad idea. This sends all of the wrong messages. "Now we go to Feb 5 when millions of americans get in on the action." Marginalizing SC.

LOL "My current capacity post-politics..." Good one, Bill. He also said, "I think I know how to put together a successful presidency."

I will agree with him here, that Hillary's accomplishments stand on their own. I do believe that her force of will and intelligence would have put her in this position whether she had been married to a president or not. I'm just disappointed that she saved her fiercest fight for this rather than fighting the Bush administration the past 7 years.

8:21 Having Bill do that speech, and leaving without delivering her own concession, was a major gaffe by Hillary.

8:23 Hey, RG, welcome! Yeah, Edwards didn't pull off the miracle.

8:25 These numbers are holding pretty bad for Hillary. This could really hurt going into Super Tuesday, especially in Samoa. Anyone know who got the Superfly Snuka endorsement?

A 19% finish isn't bad for Edwards, if you ignore my crazy predictions of a 2nd place finish.

8:32 MSNBC is peppering the Clintons pretty good. It is ironic, they're trying to pretend SC doesn't count, while trying to get delegates from states that really don't count.

The thing that makes it so hard to predict is that there are so many powerful variables here, volatile ones, too. Momentum can actually work against you, as it did in New Hampshire. Still, Americans don't like arrogance, and these moves in SC were dripping with it.

8:42 Realistically, it's hard to see Edwards doing more than picking up delegates for a floor fight at this point. Still, there's a lot that can happen between now and 2/5/08. A 2 to 1 loss by Hillary could have a major effect in the makeup of this race. I think this may serve more to push undecided voters into one or another camp.

8:47 Wow, the Governor of Florida has endorsed John McCain for Runner-up! Bad news again for Rudy.

8:55 Obama will speak soon. A lot of Clinton supporters have gotten on my case lately for being anti-Hillary. That's a long conversation, but I want to be clear that I think Hillary is an excellent candidate and a great American. Until recently, my differences with her campaign were mainly substantive. But the way her campaign has been conducted of late, I just can't get behind.

Pointing out policy differences is fine, blowing up stupid comments by your opponent is fine (hopefully in context), but the "Oops! Did I say that?" crap, the comparisons to Jesse Jackson, the Rezko stuff, this is all way over the line, and it also makes me wonder, where was this in 2004, when the Democrats got beat by a clown who literally scared us with wolves?

I took Obama strongly to task for not quashing the race issue when he had the chance, but his was a slight error of omission that he's pretty much made up for.

9:10 Obama's speech. He's playing to his strength as a uniter. It will be interesting to see how the polls move after this. Barack might do well to up the ante on his offer to Edwards. If he can get Edwards out before Super Tuesday, it could be all he needs to take the whole thing.

He's calling Hillary the status quo, but not by name, and slamming lobbyists. I didn't like that "proximity to the White House" line. He's hitting back on the Reagan thing.

I wonder if he'll mention Hillary's flight to Tennessee?

9:19 Here are CNN's detailed exit polls. Clinton and Edwards did well with the Godless.

9:25 Does anyone have Iowa or Nevada results on where Edwards' votes went?

Obama is getting high marks for the speech, Scarborough says Republicans blackberry him after Obama speeches to say "I believe." Wasn't that Kucinich's slogan?

I'm an ass, I like Dennis, he's not a kook. It's just a joke.

9:35 Edwards is speaking now. He mentioned Super Tuesday almost the same way Clinton did, but it didn't come off the same. I guess because it was the actual candidate saying it. He said, "I join Senator Clinton and Bill Clinton in congratulating Barack Obama." A dig at Hillary's escape?

9:39 Ironic that Edwards wants to give voice to the voiceless, when the media has so consistently framed this as a 2 person race, effectively denying him a voice. He's getting a lot of free press behind his debate performance.

9:41 Hillary Clinton is going to give a speech in Tennessee. According to Matt Taibbi, it is not a concession speech, but her stump speech. Or was that Mike Taibbi? Yeah, I think it was Mike.

The way Barack beat Hillary is pretty huge. More than a 2 to 1 margin. Obama needs to stay positive on the heels of this victory. LOL, Scarborough just called Hillary "Herman's Hermits" to Barack's "Beatles." That dude's old.

9:48 She just said a "broad cross-section is fighting with us for change."
"Wasn't the band great?" Don't forget to tip your waitress. Did she just basically say "F___ South Carolina?"
"I can't think of any place I'd rather be than here in Nashville"

They cut away from her speech.

9:54 Edwards is on MSNBC, talking about his build in momentum tonight, and that his campaign is doing well raising money online. Edwards correctly observes that a 3 person race is very volatile. It will be clear pretty quickly, I think, whether Edwards will continue to gain support following this primary, or whether voters will peel off to the inevitability of a 2 person race. If Hillary's thumping here causes her to lose support, and Edwards can pick that up, Super Tuesday could be really tight for all 3 candidates.

10:05 Why is Pat Buchanan even here? His analysis is so far off base. The Clintons are trying to minimize this victory, but their success at that, in my view, is a negative, on two fronts. First of all, it comes off as an attempt to marginalize this as a "black victory", when Obama got 25% of the white vote in South Carolina. That's sure to alienate some voters, black and white.

Secondly, and maybe more importantly, it comes off as sour grapes, as does Hillary jetting out without a concession speech (an awful move), and their attempt to grab tainted delegates in Florida and Michigan. Americans really don't like a sore loser.

I think her failure to deliver a concession speech, and her flight from SC before the votes had begun to be counted, will loom as major mistakes. From what I'm hearing, she's losing the narrative battle pretty badly.

By the way, MSNBC reports that Bill Clinton gave a 75 minute speech! What did that have to be like?

A lot of people are nostalgic for the Clinton era, understandable considering the subsequent administration, but people forget that a lot of liberals, independents, and democrats had big problems with Clinton. The GOP has done a good job of brainwashing people into thinking that the Clintons are the farthest-left, tinfoil-and-hemp liberals this country has ever seen, but that's just not true.

10:24 Buchanan is desperately trying to salvage this for Hillary. WTF? Interesting bit from those CNN exit polls, even Hillary's supporters seem to think that she needs Bill in order to win.

Buchanan is still trying to push back on Obama.

10:56 OK, I just got off the phone with Joe Trippi, so I'm gonna sign off now. I'll have his comments for you shortly in a separate post. Have a great night!