Florida Predictions!

Another primary, ergo another round of prediction folly! Today the Sunshine state votes. Polls opened at 7am EST and close at 8pm EST. On the Republican side, 57delegates will be awarded via a winner-takes-all format; giving tonight's winner not simply a perceptional momentum bounce but also real numbers.

Hillary Clinton is flying down to Florida to "thank the voters," where polls indicate she will easily win the non-binding straw-poll vote. The Democrats will receive no delegates for their troubles. Clinton's spin machine, however, is eager to find any thing to change the momentum perception for rival Barack Obama.

Today will be another big day for turnout. Before the polls had opened, nearly 1.5 million Florida voters cast their ballots via absentee ballots or early voting. In addition to the Presidential contest, Florida homeowners have an import property tax issue on the ballot.

So let's get crazy!


Everyone knows that Rudy Giuliani has staked his entire campaign on today's outcome. This play, in my estimation, failed. My take puts Rudy at third place, only slightly ahead of Mike Huckabee. Rudy should be saved from slipping into fourth because of his micro-focus on the early voters.

According to the Boston Globe, the GOP candidates have run 8,012 TV spots in Florida. Over half of these spots were by Mitt Romney. McCain aired less than 500. The smart money puts Romney in the lead in the race for first. In the latest polls, he has shown the most upward mobility. I believe that among the voters who turnout today, Romney will place first.

Romney has done great in recent debates, while John McCain has been lackluster. McCain had a lethargic appearance on NBC's This Week with Tim Russert over the weekend. I don't give a lot of stock to the weekend endorsement he received from Governor Charlie Crist.

However, McCain has been the leader in this race and has held it tight. Capturing a lion's share of the early and absentee voters coupled with a tight finish with Mitt in today's turnout should give McCain a first place finish overall.

Like always, this is completely conjecture and all part of the sport! Others are making their projections. Who do you project to win and why?