Cali a Dead Heat for Barack and Hillary

Rasmussen Reports, um...reports that, in a poll taken after the Florida primary but before John Edwards dropped out of the race, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were knotted in a statistical tie in the California Democratic primary race, with Clinton pulling 43% to Obama's 40%. Senator Clinton's lead is within the poll's margin of error.

Since the poll was taken prior to John Edwards' exit from the race, and no-one really knows what effect that will have on the candidates' numbers, it is hard to say what this poll means for California's 441 delegates. The numbers show a sharp tightening of the race for sure, but the "Edwards Effect" could nullify or magnify that. It is definitely not good news for Hillary Clinton.


Rasmussen's daily tracking polls, taken from a much smaller sample, still show Hillary with a more commanding, but still narrowing, 42% to 35% lead nationally, but there was a very interesting, extremely preliminary trendlet emerging:

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it's now Hillary Clinton 42% and Barack Obama 35%. Last night was the first night of interviews without John Edwards in the race. For last night's data alone, Clinton and Obama were essentially even. Samples for individual nights are very small and results should be interpreted with caution. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Friday at 11:00 a.m.

It's still way too early to tell much of anything from this, but if I was Barack Obama, I'd be breathing a sigh of relief that the early numbers didn't go the other way. Both candidates performed well in tonight's debate, so I wouldn't expect much movement from that. Barring a major gaffe or a coup by one or the other, we might not see much movement unless John Edwards endorses before Super Tuesday.

Update: DavidG, I did check the sources you provided, they are, for the most part, unattributed. I'm not going to do your research for you, I have enough to do already.
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