Super Tuesday Democratic Live Thread

Good evening, my fellow Americans, and welcome to The Political Machine's Live coverage of Super Tuesday 2008. I will be following the Democratic results, while my counterpart, Mark Impomeni, has all the latest in the GOP races.

It feels like eons since this Presidential campaign began, and on the Democratic side, the race promises to roll on even after Super Tuesday. In these moments before the polls close, and the results start coming in, I suggest we all take a deep breath, relax, and reflect on what is really at stake here. 22 states, 1,681 delegates, 81% of the total needed to secure the nomination.

But, really, we will have today a historic outcome, no matter what. The voters have two excellent candidates to choose from, and the encouraging possibility of these 2 ending up on a "Dream Ticket."

When you think about it that way, we may very well be choosing the leader of the free world for the next 16 years. Let the pigeons loose. 6:56 Polls close in Georgia in 4 minutes.

7pm MSNBC projects Obama as the winner in GA. Expectations were high for him there. The delegate count will come later.

7:04 On the GOP side, GA is a 3-way race. The Republicans settling on a nominee early is advantageous to the Democrats, more so if the nominee ssqueaks by.

7:06 MSNBC exit polls show Obama with 43% of the white vote in Georgia, a very good sign for the Illinois Senator.

He polled more strongly with young voters. A result like this in the South is, frankly, stunning. Obama continues to show that he has broad appeal, yet the race conversation continues.

Diana, thanks for your comment. I'll have to go back and read the whole thing later. I'm not just multitasking, I'm omni-tasking.

7:14 Real Clear Politics has Hillary up by 3.2 points nationally, a statistical tie. Delegate counts can shake out very differently from the vote totals, though. A McCain commercial is on now. He name-checks Reagan, then steals Hillary's "Ready on Day One" line.

Diana, you should know that I spend almost as much time deleting defamatory comments about Barack Obama as I do writing stories. There are zealots on all sides, but a measured, thoughtful approach is what is called for.

MSNBC estimates 60 of 87 Georgia delegates will go to Obama. The Obama camp is now estimating capturing 850 delegates tonight.

7:27 Hard numbers from Georgia, with 3 precincts, not 3%, Obama has 64%, Hillary 30%, and "Other" with 6%, enough to have beaten Rudy Giuliani in most of his nominating contests.

An MSNBC analyst just described a "divisional divide" among voters.

7:33 I agree, JT, that Obama's healthcare plan is not the best of the 2, but he has a lot of policy advantages, too.

The most glaring assumption he makes is that all people will buy health insurance if it is affordable. Lots of people won't, young healthy people, for example. Plus, there's a broad spectrum of "affordable."

7:46 Ha! I just got an email from an executive at Edelman Consumer Brands. They saw a joke I made in another post about Obama's gains with women being due to the Axe Effect, and they sent me this ad. I don't know if they got the idea from me, but either way, I think I'm gettin' some free body spray! Yeah! The Political Machine: Making You Smell Good.

7:52 Keep the comments coming, I am watching, but let's keep it productive. NJ, CT, and MA will be bellwethers of Hillary's prospects elsewhere. Watch the leaderboard, too, but I'll type 'em in as fast as I can.

7:59 My oldest breaks my chops about making me a cup 'o tea. "I thought you were an omnitasker"

8PM Illinois = Barack Okla.=Hillary

The Georgia numbers are tightening significantly, 51% to 43%, with 2% of precincts reporting.

8:11 Clinton is getting 61% to Obama's 38 of hispanic voters. NJ, CT too close to call. Tennessee too close, Hillary had been polling very high there.

8:16 Tenn. projected for Hillary.

Joe Trippi on Edwards' endorsement, from New Republic:

Is there any way this guy could endorse Hillary after being so tough on her between August and January?

I don't know. I know--I really think he respects her. There are different things about each of them. I think that--I certainly don't see him endorsing either one of them in the near term. I think, obviously, each of them would love [to have it]. They would work it. But I don't see him doing it in the near term. I'm not sure. In the long term, who knows? This thing could break one way or the other relatively quickly. I couldn't predict that.

I am surprised that Edwards did not endorse before today. It would have seemed like the best way to maximize the leverage of such an endorsement. On the other hand, endorsing early carries the risk of having a loser owe you a favor.

Chanel, 167%, LOL.

8:30 Surprise! Hillary and Huck win Arkansas. What's with that last "s"? Where do you get a "W" sound from that?

8:35 Louie, your ideal candidate is a combination of Bill Clinton, Bhutto, and Thatcher? What would that even look like?

I don't buy the argument that Hillary can't win. The more people see her, the more her negatives disappear. Plus, with McCain promising more war and jobs that are never coming back, and saying, "The economy ain't my bag, baby!", I don't think there's an electability argument against either Democrat.

8:42 Please put the race and gender numbers in perspective.

8:46 With 4% reporting, Hillary is up in Mass., 53%-45%, Hillary 58- Obama 37 in NJ with 1% in.

Alabama, with 9% reporting, is shaping up as a landslide for Obama, 71-29. Boy, howdy, that's the deep, deep South.

8:57 Massachusetts called for Hillary, 57-39. NY closes momentarily.

9pm Hillary wins NY. Hillary has accepted an invitation to debate on Fox News Channel.

Obama 50- Hillary 45 Barack wins Delaware.

The spin on Hillary's Mass. win is, "She beat the Kennedys."

9:09 What I tried to say before about race and gender numbers is, just because B follows A does not mean that A therefore caused B. Every voter has an identity, but other factors can be common to a group and influence their vote. I'll give you an example. Sneeches on beaches have no stars on thars, but they are as likely to vote for a star-adorned sneech who opposes offshore drilling for that reason as for the 5-pointed identifier.

9:17 Hillary is winning the "Medal Count" (thanks, Mitt), 5-2.

Score! Free Axe is on the way! Now, I just need some bodyguards to keep the honeys at bay!

9:20 Hillary wins NJ 56-41. CT is close, 51-47 Hillary up.

9:25 Obama wins Alabama.

Louie, I got you, it was just funnier my way, LOL.

Obama's strength in the deep South indicates to me that race is not much of a driver here. This seems to be shaping up to be more of a geographic battle, which makes sense.

The numbers on gender are not that significant when you factor in that there are 2 genders and 2 candidates. The men go Obama by 11%, Women for Hillary by 1%. These do not indicate a clear preference from either. Y'know what? Maybe it's about ideas.

9:46 Matthews is making way too much of the demographic data. Tornadoes forced polls to close early in 4 counties in Tenn., 1 fatality reported.

The GOP vote is all over the place. If McCain emerges as the nominee, he will be a weak one, and will find himself out of the spotlight as the Dem race goes on. Romney and Huckabee are splitting the conservative vote.

10:03 North Dakota goes for Barack, Connecticut too close to call, Obama has a narrow lead. Barack projected to win in Utah. Between that and North Dakota , Obama could almost field a Major League roster of voters.

10:07 Based on what I've seen so far, Obama is going to come out of this a winner in the expectations game.

I think Huckabee just trash-talked Romney. Followed by some Bible references.

What is he talking about? My buddy Kevin informs me Huck is name-checking collegiate mascots. Cheap, Huck.

10:17 Kansas for Obama, 72%-27! Hillary: "There's no place like home..." That was a caucus, by the way.

10:21 Connecticut has not been called yet, but Obama has a nearly 3 point lead with 69% reporting. Clinton has a sizeable lead in Missouri. 55-41 with 49% reporting.

10:27 Barack projected to win Connecticut. Early returns from Arizona have Clinton up by double digits. I wonder if that's an open primary, and how she stacks up to McCain with independents.

10:31 Matthews just said, "...on the Democrat side."

10:33 On the issue of the Barack/Hillary "Dream Ticket", I am convinced it will go down that way, whoever wins, the other will be the bottom of the ticket. Here's why: a perceived snub by either of them of a "historic candidate" could be a disastrous distraction for the party. Plus, as I said at the top of this post, it sets up a strong incumbent VP for 2016.

10:39 Why does Romney's crowd keep shouting, "Gay Heaven!"

10:41 Missouri not called yet, but it will go Hillary, 53-44 with 62% reporting. Or as David gregory would say, "Mi-ZURR-ah." Well, TAR-nation, ah am much oblahged, pardner!

10:47 What is happening in Utah? They've called it for Obama with 2% reporting, but he only has a 0.73% lead, 16 votes. Interestingly, "Other" has 15%. I think that's the Osmond family writing each other in.

10:51 Hillary speaks. She looks great. She mentioned the tornadoes, there's been a 2nd fatality reported.

10:55 California closes in 5! Predictions?

10:56 She just slapped McCain around, then fired off a swiftboating quip. Hurry up! Cali is closing!

11:01 Obama has a huge early lead in Colorado. Idaho called for Obama. Reports Tim Russett.

Minn. to Obama as well. Barack is up in the "medal count", 10-6 now. California is the real prize here.

11:12 Early lead in CA for Hillary.

11:15 Arizona called for Hillary.

11:22 MSNBC estimates Super Tuesday Delegate count at Obama 594 Clinton 546. Fox 10 Phoenix has this:

Some confusion at valley polling places today, as Arizona holds its Presidential Preference Election, not a primary. That means only registered Republicans and Democrats can vote. Independents are being turned away. That's just one of the many problems voters are facing and FOX 10's Andrew Hasbun has more.

That leaves open the question of whether McCain could carry Arizona independent voters over Hillary. 27.8% of Arizona voters are unaffiliated.

11:31 Cali is tilting heavily for Clinton in very early returns. With 2% reporting, it's Hillary 53 Barack 35. Interestingly, 12.28% of California Democrats voted "Other." No word on how many of those are write-ins for independent candidate Acapulco Gold.

11:36 ib, I disagree. While race is still a major issue in America, Obama seems to have overcome that to a sufficient degree, as evidenced by his performance so far.

Back to those 12.28% in Cali. Obama was neck-and-neck in polls going in. Those folks seem to have been peeled away from him.

11:43 Obama speaks. Great split-screen. A little dig at FEMA. He's echoing his 2004 keynote speech. "We're friends." Dream ticket?

Commenters, stay tuned, I'll get to you, I swear. Oof, he's hitting hard on the lobbyist thing, and now the war. /and diplomacy. These are substantive points.

David Knowles notes:

have you noticed the disparity in the number of votes between the parties in races where both are holding elections? dems are crushing repubs in terms of turn out in most states.

How much will a poorer-than-expected performance hurt Obama? California primary rules allow independents to vote in primaries, and to switch parties up to 15 days before a primary.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for." Great line.

I haven't had time to crunch it yet, but the divisions really seem to be more geographic.

Missouri might still be in play. So, is Hillary stronger on the coasts? That's a little unexpected.

12:11 Obama looks to complete a virtual sweep of caucus states, <pause> Hillary declared winner in California. The spin game is going to be dizzifying. <unpause> New Mexico has not reported.

MSNBC has invented a new designation, "Apparent Winner". Reminds me of that old joke about the difference between Essence and Reality.

12:23 Holy Cow, Obama caught Hillary in Missouri! I think the spin will favor Obama. California is really the lone bright spot for Hillary in terms of expectations. While significant, the "Obama Map" is going to look pretty good for November. At a glance, Obama's margins look wide compared to Hillary's.

12:30 Romney camp is signalling he may drop out, which is good for the Dems. Hillary got 65% of the Hispanic vote in Ca.

Romney's camp saying there will be "Frank discussions" tomorrow about the campaign. If McCain is the nominee tomorrow, that benefits the Democrats, and Obama a little more, because they can start to focus on McCain's considerable weaknesses on the war and the economy.

12:40 NBC calls Missouri for Obama.

12:43 Obama wins Alaska. It was in the pipeline all along. Missouri is really close, less than 5,000 votes separating them, but with 98% reporting, Obama looks to hold. That leaves New Mexico, where Hillary has the lead in a tiny reporting sample.

MSNBC estimates tonight's delegate totals at Obama 841- Clinton 837, with a 10 delegate wiggle.

Obama clinches the "Medal Count", with 13 states to Hillary's 8, and NM still in play.

1:11 Stop the presses! American Samoa has gone for Hillary! Totals were 163 votes for Hillary, 121 for Barack, 1 for Mike Gravel, with Captain Lou Albano abstaining.

To the readers, understand that when I talk about "medal counts" and the "Obama map", I am identifying narratives that I expect to emerge from this. Some of you make the point that it's about the delegate count, but that's point Z. Right now, the battlefield is perception, and unfortunately, the media plays a disproportionate role in that.

I personally think that this is 6 of 1, half-a-dozen of the other. Even granting that, I've got to give Obama the advantage, both from an expectations standpoint, and the fact that he is out-fundraising Hillary by a wide margin. Doesn't mean Hillary's done. This is a true horse race.

Missouri allows for a recount if the margin is less than 1%.

1:36 New Mexico has a 9 point Hillary advantage with 28% reporting. OK, hang in a few more minutes, I'll post my conclusions and update New Mexico 1 more time. While you're waiting, go post a one-liner about Karl Rove. Be right back.

1:47 AOL has a roundup of early reports of voting mishaps. Not a good omen for November, when long lines in densely populated areas will hurt Democrats.

Summing Up

There are 2 sets of narratives I will give you, mine and the one I anticipate from the media. When all's said and done, both campaigns will have things to brag about, and the nuts-and-bolts results will end up being a practical wash. What remains then is an attempt to identify trends and themes, and to measure the results against expectations.

Expect race and gender to continue to be a theme for the pundits, with the angle being that Obama proved himself with the white vote, while Hillary lost her edge with female voters. I wouldn't be surprised, either, to see some marginalization of Hillary's big win in California due to her performance with hispanic voters. As more results come in, her margin in California is narrowing, too.

Already, they're talking about fundraising, which may be the only thing that could end up pressuring Hillary out of this race before the convention. If the cash flow continues to tilt for Obama, Hillary could see her funding dry up even more, with donors wanting to back a winner.

For me, the real story here is that map. In the states he won, the margins were mostly wide. In many of the others, he came close, and I believe this will demonstrate the breadth of his appeal.

Another curious aspect of this Super Tuesday was the number of "Other" voters in some states, especially California. I can surmise, perhaps, that these were extremely loyal Edwards voters? I don't know, but it's interesting. What do these voters do come November? I will be watching to see where those votes went.

I don't see Hillary Clinton being pushed out of this race, but they need to keep their reactions measured. Obama gained mightily in the polls in the last week or so, so Clinton's camp needs to avoid seeming desperate or defensive. They should adopt a stance of, "Hey, we got a race here!" rather that overspinning meager advantages.

Also, it turns out the makers of "Axe" body spray have awesome taste in Political Coverage.

Thanks for hanging in there. I'll be checking comments tomorrow, as well. Good night, and sweet dreams. Wait! Obama's ahead in New Mexico! a slim, 363 vote lead with 37% reporting. 48.23% to 47.54%. Too close to call. I will watch this for a little while.

Death toll from the tornadoes is at 22. Very sad.

2:56 am new Mexico hasn't moved. I'm going to bed. An Obama win in New Mexico will hurt Hillary more than it should, as she is now expected to carry any state with a large hispanic population. Wait, now Hillary leads there by 1.3% with 47% reporting. I hate New Mexico.

3:15 This is it. The last time I'm checking. Whoever's ahead now can have it. By the way, at what point do you stop calling it "New" Mexico? Shouldn't we eventually go to something like "The Other Mexico", or "Mexico II", or "Ultra-Mexico"? It's not really new anymore, is it? OK, drumroll...with 54% reporting, Hillary is up, 49-47. Good night!

9:03 AM G Davis, good post on Obama's margins. Franek, your conclusion is not supported by fact. Obama does extraordinarily well with college educated voters.