Chesapeake Predictions!

Another round of primaries; more prediction folly! Today is another big day in the race for the White House. Given the polling, the headline outcome lacks the mystery of previous contests but the unknown details will be shockingly important.

On the Democratic side, there are 237 delegates. The District of Columbia has 37 delegates, 99 in Maryland and 101 in Virginia.

On the Republican side, there are 119 delegates. The District of Columbia has 19 delegates, 37 in Maryland and 63 in Virginia.

All three "Chesapeake" primary states will have big Democrat turnouts. Blah, blah, blah.

But let's dig deeper!
The question, of course, will be margins. Barack Obama will win all three contest; but by what margin and where? The amount of delegates awarded between Super Tuesday and March 4 equal more than the delegates awarded on March 4 (Texas and Ohio). Obama has to continue to grab margins like he did this past weekend and then be a loser of the same margin, as Clinton has been, when she wins. This will keep him in the lead among pledged delegates.

The same holds true for John McCain, sort of. He needs to win with 50 percent plus in order to shut down the insurgency of Huckabee. If he doesn't, while not likely, it remains possible that Huckabee could deny him a first-round nomination.

In today's match-ups, both "front runners" need to stretch their margins.

Polls close at 7pm EST in Virgina and 8pm EST in Maryland and D.C.

If you're a voter int the "Chesapeake Primary," who and why did you vote?