Obama Wins 2, McCain Takes Va.

Tonight, voters in Washington, D.C., Virginia, and Maryland will head to the polls to cast ballots in a series of primaries that has been dubbed, "The Potomac Primary", "The Beltway Primary", even the "Crabcake Primary." I will be back tonight at 7p.m. to hash over all of the up-to-the-minute results.

The stakes here are higher than the delegates at stake might indicate. For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton must avoid a repeat of this past weekend's sweep by Barack Obama, or her "Firewalls" in Texas and Ohio will begin to look more like the walls of Jericho. A sweep doesn't neccesarily finish her, as this election thus far has belied the normal forces of polling, spin, and momentum, but to the extent that momentum can hurt her, she could really use a win.

At stake for Obama is his tenuous hold on the front-runner baton, at least as far as perceptions go.

For the Republicans, John McCain can only be hurt tonight. As the presumptive nominee, there is no degree to which he can crush Mike Huckabee that will improve his standing, either within his party or nationally. Huckabee, however, stands to gain tremendous momentum going into the rest of the primaries. It would take a miracle for him to win the delegates needed for the nomination, but with the party in full-on revolt over McCain, anything can happen, and he can at least shore up a case for a VP spot.

Give me your thoughts on tonight's contests, and I'll meet you back here tonight to compare notes.

6:45 Polls close in Virginia in 15 minutes! After the jump, the liveblogging fun starts.

A big reason that political pundits have had such trouble predicting and analyzing both presidential races this year is the complete lack of precedent on both sides. For the Democrats, obviously, we have two hiswtoric candidacies. Barack Obama is the first black candidate to actually have a chance to win, and Hillary Clinton is doubly unprecedented, as the first lady and the first First Lady to have a shot at the highest office.

On the GOP side, the Republicans have fought their way through a fragmented early primary season, finally settling on John McCain as the presumptive nominee (barring a Huckabee miracle), and promptly saw a tsunami of backlash against the Arizona Senator, from the conservative movement's most vocal figureheads, before the echoes from Mitt Romney's concession had died down.

Both parties are running to take over for a historically unpopular president, and to inherit a hugely expensive and unpopular war.

7pm Obama is the projected winner in Virginia, too close to call for the GOP. According to MSNBC, Obama crushed with white males. They're also reporting that 30% of the Dem turnout was from Republicans and independents.

The Republican race is really going to be interesting tonight. Huckabee has been pigeonholed as the evangelical candidate, but that grossly underestimates his populist appeal.

MSNBC exit polls shows Obama winning 90% of the black vote, 48% of the white vote, but 55% of the white male vote.

So, what can Huckabee accomplish? There is virtually no chance he can catch McCain in the delegate count. Still, the impossible is only impossible until someone does it. However, if he sticks around, picking up delegates and weakening McCain, what does the GOP do come convention time? It would be tough, but not impossible, for the GOP to select a nominee other than the delegate winner. If the choice is that or to send forth McCain after the very real possibility that he gets booed on the national stage...

Much is being made of Obama's edge with white men, but it doesn't surprise me. Demographic voting data is of marginal value. When you consider that the mathematic probability is 50/50, and the number of other variables, even seemingly large disparities are inconclusive.

90% of the black vote is harder to ignore, until you consider a greater commonality of other factors among black people.

7:32 Based on early returns, Obama is up 62%-37%, and McCain and Huckabee are still too close to call.

7:38 Early Va. returns have Huckabee up 51-43 with 7% reporting. Virginia is a winner-take-all state for the GOP. Maryland has extended poll closings by an hour and a half due to inclement weather.

7:41 Huck and McCain have tightened to 49-44 with 9% of Va. precincts reporting. Obama leads by a 60-39 tally with 11% in.

7:47 Hillary Clinton was not expected to do well today, but having said that, if Obama sweeps her today and on 2/19, she is going to have to fight a long 3 week battle against the perception that Obama is inevitable. As I've noted before, though, the perceived momentum could energize Hillary's supporters and bring them out March 4, while Obama's folks could stay home thinking his victory is a fait accompli.

There's been a lot of handwringing about the superdelegates overthrowing the popular vote at the Democratic National Convention, but I don't see it happening. I think it's just something else for the pundits to jaw about. If there is even a slightly clear winner, the supers will fall in line.

8pm Obama wins DC, GOP too close.

Back to the super delegates. It would not be in the Democratic Party's interests to defy the popular will, especially when you consider the huge turnout they've seen so far. It also seems difficult, at this point, for them to advance anything other than a "Dream Ticket" that includes both Hillary and Barack. With an opponent who appeals more to independents and conservative democrats than his own party, the Dems would be foolish to risk alienating any large voting bloc.

8:14 Huck and McCain are knotted at 46% in Va. with 36% reporting.

8:25 McCain now has a 2000 vote lead in Va with 45% reporting. Earlier, Huckabee announced campaign events in Wisconsin, signalling his intent to keep going.

8:30 McCain wins Virginia. That was Huckabee's best shot tonight, so McCain can breathe out a little bit.

8:50 Clinton deputy campaign manager Mike Henry has resigned. Anrea Mitchell just said "White men can jump...to a black candidate."

Hillary is supposed to speak soon from El Paso, Texas. Let's see if we can get a picture of her Texas campaign Headquarters.

8:56 McCain is at 47% to Huck's 45% in Virginia with 65% reporting. I really have to wonder what the GOP's angle is in not getting Huckabee out. Unless there's some plan B to McCain, they should offer him whatever it takes to get him out and stop hurting their nominee.

9pm Hillary is whipping up the El Paso crowd. Pennsylvannia Governor Ed Rendell, meanwhile, had this to say to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:

"You've got conservative whites here, and I think there are some whites who are probably not ready to vote for an African-American candidate," he said bluntly. Our eyes only met briefly, perhaps because the governor wanted to spare the only black guy in the room from feeling self-conscious for backing an obvious loser.

"I believe, looking at the returns in my election, that had Lynn Swann [2006 Republican gubernatorial candidate] been the identical candidate that he was --well-spoken [note: Mr. Rendell did not call the brother "articulate"], charismatic, good-looking -- but white instead of black, instead of winning by 22 points, I would have won by 17 or so."

What do you think? Realist or racist?

On the eve of the New Hampshire primary, a credible buzz was built that Hillary would have to drop out if she lost that contest. That hypothetical never panned out, but with a hyper-speed news cycle, can she weather 3 weeks of "Obama Sweeps" headlines? Keep in mind that New Hampshire, which seems like ancient history now, was barely more than 4 weeks ago.

9:09 Hillary speaks. She's thanking everyone in Texas. She looks very confident, very upbeat. Oooh, she just called out Bush. "All hat and no cattle."

At 9:30, I'm going to move this over to a new thread for the Maryland results.

Hillary just pledged a $9.50 minimum wage. She's sounding very Edwards-esque.

OK, let's move it over to the new thread.