Obama Wins; Hillary Hits Homer in 9th Inning

My very brief analysis of tonight's Democratic debate in Texas: Hillary Clinton missed several golden opportunities, and Barack Obama held his own. With her lead in Texas narrowing, and her struggle to win delegates increasingly steep, Hillary Clinton needed a knockout, or needed Obama to fall on his face. That didn't happen, so this is a win for Obama.

However, Hillary so badly outclassed Barack on that final question that it makes the earlier missed opportunities that much more glaring. Worst of all was her invocation of the bogus plagiarism charge. After Senator Obama had thoroughly dismantled the argument, she tried to launch a sound bite, saying, "That's not change you can believe in, that's change you can Xerox."

Not only did the crowd boo her, but she wasted a chance to blunt the damage done by a week of negative campaigning by surrogates. She should have repudiated the plagiarism claim, and reinforced her "solutions, not speeches" argument. It would have been a classy move that would have allowed her to capitalize on her later gains.

Her performance on that last question, however, was so superb, and so powerful as the last word in the debate, that she could have gained real ground if not for the missteps. This is what I was talking about when I said, "Let Hillary be Hillary"

Update: Here's the video of that last question. After the jump, a little more analysis the morning after.

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Neither candidate really answered the question asked, which was to name a crisis that had tested them. Obama gave a meandering autobiography, and said the whole thing was his test. Hillary made a relaxed crack about weathering crises in the first Clinton era, then spoke very movingly about wounded veterans, and finished by saying that whatever she goes through is nothing compared to the troubles of ordinary Americans. A triumph.

The moments that fell flattest were those that were obviously based on campaign talking points, like bringing up Chris Matthews' ambush of Kirk Watson. It is a shame for Hillary, because Obama scored lots of points against McCain, another area Hillary could have done better on.

Here was Hillary's weakest moment, her "Xerox" comment.

On the question of earmarks, Hillary took a novel approach, but Obama wins the point anyway.

She elects to answer a different question, a popular technique, but a missed opportunity given the strength of Obama's answer. Again, this answer seems to have been crafted by strategists rather than emanating from an authentic place. She needed to address the earmarks specifically, and didn't.


Hillary came off really well in areas where she essentially agreed with Obama, as with the economy. Her answer is relaxed and assured, and she really shines on this one.


In an area where I believe Obama is weaker, he carries the point by effectively countering Hillary's anecdotal flourishes. By the way, where is her Secret Service detail? It sounds like people are constantly grabbing her arm, or clutching her hand, on the campaign trail.


Hillary missed a huge opportunity, almost as huge as the "Xerox" misstep, with this question.


Her silence on the question of Obama's readiness was deafening. She should have started by saying, "Of course I think he's ready, but I'm readier, more qualified." She could have even made a joke about Obama being ready to be "a heartbeat away." Although she didn't say he wasn't ready, which would have been a major blunder, she could have scored major class points here.

It seems clear to me that the thing that tripped her up here was the din of strategists and talking points in her ear. It's a shame, because if she picks up even one of those missed points, I think it tips this debate in her favor.

I hope that, if Hillary doesn't come back to win the nomination, that she ends up on the ticket with Obama. I also hope that the next time she runs for office, she gets rid of her current strategists and hires me. It will be the easiest paycheck I ever earn. "Let Hillary be Hillary."


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