Democratic Debate: Obama Wins Fixed Fight

At tonight's Democratic Presidential debate, possibly the last one, Hillary Clinton needed a knockout against Barack Obama to reverse the downward momentum of her campaign. She ended up fending off the moderators more than her opponent. In between, she failed to deliver on the radiant promise of the last debate, while also landing a few blows.

Once again an obviously scripted joke fell flatter than Mike Huckabee's globe, but this time, she had a real point there. Brian Williams, and particularly Tim Russert, gave Hillary a George Foreman-style grilling, while Obama received only a quick saute.

However, even absent the moderating inequity, Hillary's performance did little to change the perception that her campaign is flagging. After the jump, a quick look at some key moments, including an extraordinary commercial break.
Hillary set the tone early by complaining anew about Obama's healthcare mailer and his criticism of her positions on NAFTA, which is fine, except she characterized as "attacks" what were merely legitimate policy differences. Obama scored here by pointing out Clinton's own campaign tactics and saying he wasn't going to "whine" about them.

The healthcare question was remarkable in that the candidates went 4 or 5 rounds on that issue alone. Hillary tried to score by prolonging the question, saying, "This is too important...", but the moment was a replay from the last debate, lacking spontaneity. Although she is stronger on the substance of this issue, Obama countered effectively, and she came off a little bit desperate.

Then came the awkward SNL line. It was obviously crafted in advance, to be dropped in at the appropriate moment. She picked on the fact that she was being asked the questions first, a pretty weak point, and the crowd reacted with murmurs and a muted jeer or two.

Ironically, the line would have scored big had she waited a minute, as Tim Russert launched into a blistering critique of her statements on NAFTA. She countered effectively by explaining, very naturally, the nuances and context of her NAFTA record, and Russert went back at her not once, not twice, but three times.

This is Russert's MO, to eschew substance in favor of "Gotcha!" word games. Both candidates felt the sting of Russert's wet noodles, but Hillary was clearly on the wrong end of that scale. These were her strongest moments, where she most often shied away from scripted talking points and just worked on her feet.

A great example was Russert waving Hillary's "Economic Blueprint", and trying to get her to backpedal on job creation in the context of net job losses in New York State. She correctly pointed out that her predictions for the state were predicated on a Gore presidency and a national Democratic agenda.


She missed the opportunity again to modulate her comments on Obama's readiness as Commander in Chief, or to take ownership of it, again deflecting to her own bona fides.

Russert is also a serial interrupter, but clearly used the tactic more sharply and frequently on Clinton. Perhaps the SNL comment unleashed a peevishness in the moderators. He then began to engage in silly foreign policy hypotheticals, and both candidates affected a reasoned tone that underscored the absurdity of asking a Presidential candidate, "Pop quiz, Hotshot..."


At one point, Hillary tried to respond to Obama, and Brian Williams and she had a near shouting match, as Williams tried to explain the "hard break" to her. It is hard to believe that there is no mechanism to forewarn the candidates, like they have at, I don't know, every comedy club, or that a pro like Hillary wouldn't have known it.

Coming back from the break, Hillary was helped back into her seat by a stagehand, and I could swear I heard her say, "Cut me, Mick, cut me!"

Obama scored big when they played the "Celestial Choir" clip (by "mistake"), and remarked with aplomb, "Sounds good!"

Russert did launch into a couple of ridiculous "Gotcha's" on Obama, along the lines of, "Farrakhan endorsed you, your pastor likes Farrakhan, doesn't that then mean you have Cooties?"

Obama answered well, but Hillary went back at him and forced him to reject Farrakhan's endorsement, an unusual surrender for one of these debates.

These two candidates agree on much of the substance, so much of these debates rest on the perception game. Obama was cool and confident, while Hillary was clearly pressing. The only silver lining here is the possibility that the moderators' unbalanced pressure on Hillary engenders support for her, a thin hope indeed.

Update: TFitz, I saw you on the preview, hope you make it here. I keep missing my regulars. Just know that I do read all of the comments eventually. Thee have just been a lot lately.

Everyone, please keep in mind, this type of debate analysis has only a small part to do with policy issues and debating skill. The substance of these candidates was hammered out long ago, in the first 15 debates. Now, the thing that matters most is where the debate moves the voters. In that context, Obama is the clear winner, as I didn't see the punch from Hillary that would stop Obama in his tracks.

Having said that, I hope that the media and the anti-Hillary voting public do some soul-searching on where this level of hostility comes from. It ain't healthy.

There you are, Tom! Yeah, Hillary really needed to blow Barack out of the water. Still, the moderators' behavior really has me wondering if this could still help her. We'll know more tomorrow, if that becomes the story. It was pretty stark to me. Yourmarketedge, Russert's NAFTA litany was prepared and unprovoked.


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