Big State Democratic Primary: Hillary Rising

OK, let me start by apologizing profusely for the lateness, my dog ate my bandwidth. Obama is projected to win Vermont, Ohio is too close to call, Texas polls have not closed yet, nor have Rhode Island's. Join me after the jump for more Primary-tastic fun, and definitely leave me your comments. Anyone in a primary state, give us your experience today.

Summation:0:06AM Hillary Clinton has won Rhode Island and the bellwether state of Ohio, and is likely to win Texas, with Obama taking Vermont. The Hillary Clinton campaign will go on, and a floor fight in August seems likely. It is my fervent hope, likely futile, that this campaign will become more about Democratic values than fearmongering and divisiveness. I want the person answering that phone to do so with a ready military that is not bogged down in a mistaken war. Keep it up, and neither of you will be picking up that call.

6:45AM Hillary has held Texas 51-47.

7:45 The expectations game is paramount tonight, and figures to work in Hillary's favor. That is, provided she wins Ohio and Texas. If she loses even one of them, she's done. It works in her favor, though, because if she does win, even in a squeaker, al of the ground that Obama made up in the polls will be forgiven.

Ohio is holding the polls in Sandusky open until 9:30 due to weather. Does anyone remember the name of that 80's dance movie with the kids from Sandusky?

8pm Obama's campaign has requested a 2 hour extension in Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, in Ohio, and MSNBC reports that the extension in Sandusky is because they ran out of ballots. Great, this is the state that could turn the whole election, and they ran out of ballots! It's not like they had a lot of other crap to order, y'know, coffee cups, napkins. Our elections are not as well-run as a 7-11.

I don't want to read too much into the Vermont results, but Obama crushed Hillary in early returns, 59-39 with 6% reporting. Vermont has a lot of "independent" voters, a group that Obama does well with.

Even without a rooting interest in tonight's contest, since I do honestly think they are both fine candidates, and I don't think a prolonged campaign hurts the Democrats, I do hope that the type of campaigning exemplified by the "3am" ad is rejected by Democratic primary voters.

8:11 Early exit polls have Hillary in front 56-42%, but that's based on about 3500 votes from exit polls. Andrea Mitchell reports high spirits at Clinton headquarters.

8:15 Chris Matthews criticizes Hillary for having a victory party "Orchestrated." Like she's supposed to send Mark Penn out to Walgreen's at 10 for confetti and balloons. Is that bias or idiocy?

8:21 MSNBC's early exit polls have Obama with a huge lead in Texas. 58%-41%, but I didn't think the networks were releasing these types of exit polls before the polls closed, so as not to influence votes. An MSNBC "mistake"?

8:26 An unnamed MSNBC staffer tells me that they do report results from parts of the state where polls have closed. Maybe I should have known that, but it doesn't seem right to me. I don't remember seeing any returns from other races before polls were closed, only demographics.

8:35 According to MSNBC's exit polling, Hillary is winning white voters, men 55-44 and women 66-34. Hmm. 1 in 5 voters said race was a factor, and 80% of those voters went for Hillary. Man, that's disturbing.

8:45 You know, until now, I've kept pretty quiet about this, because I know that comments are anonymous, and there's no way to tell who's really leaving them, but the people who say they're Hillary, who leave negative comments, are way, way uglier with the comments. If you're trying to make Hillary look bad, it isn't working. You only make yourselves look bad. JH, please stop. 18 times I deleted duplicates of your "milato" comment, enough's enough.

9pm Polls in Texas are closed now, and the races in Tx and Vermont are to close to call.

9:19 Obama leads in Tx, 54-45%, with 2% reporting. If that margin holds up, if any Obama victory holds up, Hillary has got to go. I only hope it isn't too late for these two to end up on the same ticket, because I think that is crucial to a Democratic victory in November.

9:23 Hillary wins Rhode Island, 53%-46%.

As I was saying, if she's not on Obama's ticket, she needs to at least graciously turn down the honor. If not, I expect that a significant number of women voters, who McCain also does well with, will switch to McCain. I don't buy all the talk about the campaign driving a wedge between these two. I know Hillary, at least, is too much of a pro to let that interfere with a smart political move.

9:39 Katherine, most people who find the word "mulatto" acceptable know how to spell it. The point about him being biracial would have more impact if racial bigots paid any attention to the distinction. He's black enough to get pulled over for no reason, black enough to be followed around in a department store, black enough to have shared those formative experiences with other black folks. In American racial politics, there is no "half-white."

Speaking of race politics, Ed Rendell is on MSNBC now shilling for Hillary. He's the one who thinks that 5% or so of Pennsylvania Democrats would never vote for a black man. Who are these supposed Democrats? Who are these Hillary supporters who say they will vote for McCain now? This is why the GOP has been beating the Democrats' asses for years, no party unity.

I can see liking one or the other better, but any sane, rational adult can see that they agree on almost everything! This is not a lousy football game, this is the future of this country, of our mothers, our fathers, our daughters, our sons. This is for bridges that don't fall down, and toys that don't poison our children. This is bigger than a fit of pique at being on the losing team.

Reasonable people can disagree, that's what makes America great, but the bile and lies and filth that I see flung back and forth by people who claim to be from the same party, to share a set of values that put the common good on an even plane with the individual, I find it disgraceful. It is disgraceful to suggest that Hillary Clinton is unfit to be President because she's a woman, or "emotional", or "shrill", or that she did a litany of unproven, debunked crap. It is just as disgraceful to suggest that Barack Obama is unpatriotic, or falsely claim that he's a Muslim, or that it would matter if he was.

These are not the values of the Democratic Party that I know. It's not the America I know. I wouldn't make a suggestion against John McCain, who I disagree with on the most important issues, that he is too old, or that he acted dishonorably as a POW, or any other specious claim. If you can't beat him on the policy, you have no business in this fight.

10:03 Crap. I got so worked up, I missed some developments. Texas has narrowed to 51-48 for Obama, and Clinton has a 58-40 lead in Ohio with 24% reporting. She has already won Rhode Island by 20 points.

Judy, bandwidth is the amount of data I can send over the interweb, or rather the size of the pipeline. I was referencing difficulties with my computer.

If Obama ends up losing Texas, this is a whole new ballgame, and it could get really ugly. With Ohio, especially, the issue of race is bubbling just under the surface if this clip is any indication.

With 14% reporting, Obama 50% to 48% for Hillary. I have to say, if these results have anything to do with that stupid "3am" commercial, I give up. If that crap works on you, just vote for McCain.

Sandusky Tom, what was the name of that movie? It was an 80's Flashdance-type flick about some kids from Sandusky.

Texas has narrowed to 50%-49%. The counties that closed late in Ohio all contain large cities, so the gap there could close a lot, too.

Katherine, the ad suggests that the kids aren't safe if Obama is the President. I wouldn't stand for the suggestion against Hillary, or even McCain. The ad didn't scare you because you know who you are voting for, you pay attention to politics. That ad is targeted at people who don't, who get their politics from email and TV commercials.

Texas is knotted at 49% each with 20% reporting. If Obama loses there, he faces serious momentum issues. Hillary holds a huge lead in Pennsylvania.

10:46PM I just discovered the "Timestamp" button.

10:47PM I'm a moron.

10:47PM OK, now the margin in Texas is razor-thin for Obama. Looks like I might be having some fun in Denver after all.

10:52PM Hillary projected as Ohio winner. The margin may change, for now it's at 57-41%.

11:00PM Too many Toms here. Sandusky Tom, thanks, I'll check. Tom F, what up? Where you been? I'm only checking comments every so often. Multitasking. I still didn't read your thing on Specious, I'll go do it now.

11:04PM Specious isn't working right now, I bet those Paulites hacked it, LOL.

11:11PM OMG, Chris Matthews is making sense! He's saying that the demographic and other factors that get analyzed to death may all be less meaningful than geographic/social factors. I floated that weeks ago, but he's the first MSM pundit, or any other, that I've heard it from.

11:16PM Tom, you should post the link, I'll put it up here.

11:17PM Hillary is speaking in Ohio now. It seems that no matter what happens in Texas, Hillary will go on. The crowd is chanting, "Yes she will!" I just hope she stops with the Republican-style ads.

11:29PM I'm tired of both candidates telling me about "the dude in pomona with the job and the kids who told me blah blah blah..."

11:31PM I liked the intro to that song. Anybody know what it is? Oof! Hillary is ahead in Texas!

11:38PM Obama speaks. Congratulates Hillary. Oh, here it is, the people in the neighborhood. It's the liberal equivalent of red meat.

11:59PM OK, I'm going to wrap this up soon. Texas looks like it will stay too close to call, and final results aren't expected until 4:30 am. Any final thoughts?

0:04AM I'm going to put a quick summation above the fold, and I'll update for Texas in the morning. Hillary leads by 2 points now, and it seems likely to hold. Go check out Tom's satire piece on Ron Paul, give him a good rating. In fact, read all of his stuff, it's very funny. Tom, good work on the triple-dare, and thanks for that image of Ron Paul, I'll never get to sleep now.

03/05/08 8:48 am Davidg, welcome back! Thanks for complimenting my satirical skills. I can see why Tom F's Ron Paul piece isn't your cup of tea, but you gotta admit, "Hillary Breaks Own Leg" is hilarious! Something not included there is that Tom originally published it as a comment, parodying those bogus "Hey, guys, interesting (eg FAKE) story!" with a fake dateline, etc. If you read this, follow me to my next post and tell me what you thought of last night.

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