Hillary's New Marching Orders From Rove
Tommy Christopher
Contributor
Posted:
03/6/08
Newly minted pundit and strategist-for-hire Karl Rove has some new advice for Hillary Clinton on how to defeat Barack Obama:
I say "some new advice" because Hillary has already been wearing out the pages of her Karl Rove playbook recently. Considering how it seems to have worked out, I can see her being tempted to keep on going back to that well.
If you didn't read my Hillary story yesterday, go back and read it now. Rove, a brilliant strategist, wrote exactly what I wrote, except I wrote it from a place of love and concern. I don't think Karl is really looking out for Hillary or the Democrats here. Call it a hunch. Hillary Clinton has a decision to make. The fact that Karl Rove is validating her current strategy ought to give her pause.
Hillary can keep on using Rove's advice, and maybe, just maybe, she ekes out a victory against Obama. Probably not, given the delegate math and the fact that I don't think the Rove strategy actually worked. Or she can use my strategy, which has worked for her over and over, and is likely the reason for whatever positive occurred Tuesday night. Unfortunately, they are mutually exclusive.
First, some of Rove's suggestions:
It's actually a little scary, how much alike Rove and I think (even his advice to McCain), but with different motivations. He even recommends a key component of my strategy:
In brief, here's my advice for Hillary's campaign:
1. Let Hillary be Hillary. As I've said before, the more contact voters have with Hillary, the more they like her. When she resorts to talking points and scripted attacks, like the Xerox line at the debate, people don't like it.
2. Stop flipping off "small state" voters. I live in one of Hillary's "Big States", and it's still offensive when she suggests that some state's voters are more valuable than others. Besides, with proportional representation, Hillary can still pick up delegates in Obama's states just by being there. Hillary, the 50 State strategy works.
3. Keep the attacks substantive. Mocking "Hope" and "Change" is a losing strategy. So is bringing up flimsy crap like Rezko. Her advantage on Healthcare is significant. She's right that a plan without a mandate won't be Universal, and people who can afford it will wait until they get sick. What Obama can't say is that the only reason he doesn't have a mandate is that it'll never get through Congress like that. In real life, they'll have to throw in some kind of back-door, de-facto mandate, but he can't sell it like that. The experience issue is a little iffier, since he has responded effectively to that. One attack that has resonated with me is the "glass jaw" charge. If she frames her experience as campaigning experience, then she has a winning issue.
4. Hammer McCain. If Democrats see her destroying the GOP nominee in substantive ways, it helps her and Obama, and it plays into her strength as a fighter. Look, the vote to authorize the war was a mistake, but it can be argued it was made in good faith. McCain has no exit door on Iraq, and he has completely blown it on the economy. She needs to not let him up off the floor.
5. Out-Barack Barack. His most effective weapon is the compliment. Right before he blasts someone on the substance, he talks about what a great "so-and-so" they are. In fact, if I were Hillary, I'd flat out say, "Senator Obama is a fresh, inspirational voice who would gain valuable experience as my Vice President."
It's not too late for Hillary to step back from the edge, but once you start down the Dark Path, the woods have a way of closing up behind you.
Update: I emailed this story to the Clinton campaign. Here's hoping she reads it before Mark Penn does.
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The big development to watch is not the rise of the "Obamicans" -- Republicans who are backing the charismatic Illinois senator. The interesting electoral phenomenon is the emergence of the "McCainicrats" -- Democrats backing Mr. McCain. It's not just Sen. Joe Lieberman. In three recent polls, (Fox, LA Times/Bloomberg and Gallup), almost twice as many Democrats support Mr. McCain as Republicans support Mr. Obama. Three times as many Democrats support Mr. McCain as Republicans back Mrs. Clinton...
So what must Mr. McCain and Mrs. Clinton do, especially in the seven weeks before Pennsylvania?
Both need to focus on Mr. Obama's biggest weaknesses.
I say "some new advice" because Hillary has already been wearing out the pages of her Karl Rove playbook recently. Considering how it seems to have worked out, I can see her being tempted to keep on going back to that well.
If you didn't read my Hillary story yesterday, go back and read it now. Rove, a brilliant strategist, wrote exactly what I wrote, except I wrote it from a place of love and concern. I don't think Karl is really looking out for Hillary or the Democrats here. Call it a hunch. Hillary Clinton has a decision to make. The fact that Karl Rove is validating her current strategy ought to give her pause.
Hillary can keep on using Rove's advice, and maybe, just maybe, she ekes out a victory against Obama. Probably not, given the delegate math and the fact that I don't think the Rove strategy actually worked. Or she can use my strategy, which has worked for her over and over, and is likely the reason for whatever positive occurred Tuesday night. Unfortunately, they are mutually exclusive.
First, some of Rove's suggestions:
Mr. Obama has no real record of voting and working across party lines on high profile issues like judges, immigration, intelligence reform, troop funding and energy.Sure, because Hillary will be doing his work for him. Rove is basically telling Gary Coleman to call Emanuel Lewis "Shorty" before he faces Shaquille O'Neal in the general election. Every one of the strategies Rove identifies for Hillary to use on Barack are ones that McCain will beat Hillary with.
Both can ask why Mr. Obama has failed to engage on these issues since his election to the Senate, while they have well-earned scars from tackling many of them.
Mr. McCain and Mrs. Clinton also need to continue highlighting Mr. Obama's lack of experience. Mrs. Clinton's surrogates and ads effectively hammered him on this.
Take, for example, Mr. Obama's declaration that "true patriotism" consists of speaking out on the issues, not wearing a flag lapel pin, a practice he has given up. Mrs. Clinton could say people can do both and if Sen. Obama decided not to wear a flag pin, he shouldn't question the "true patriotism" of those who chose to wear one. The blue-collar/lunch-pail crowd who've given Mrs. Clinton critical support would respond to that.
Mr. McCain, on the other hand, will have to work harder to get attention and prepare for the general election. And without a specific opponent, his principal focus should be on himself.
It's actually a little scary, how much alike Rove and I think (even his advice to McCain), but with different motivations. He even recommends a key component of my strategy:
Mrs. Clinton also must show more of the personal warmth and humor that came across in appearances on Saturday Night Live, the Daily Show and Fox.Rove identifies what I believe to be the real key to her recovery Tuesday. and her only shot at beating Obama without handing the whole ballgame to McCain. The beauty of it is, this strategy is easy and much more powerful than Rove's.
In brief, here's my advice for Hillary's campaign:
1. Let Hillary be Hillary. As I've said before, the more contact voters have with Hillary, the more they like her. When she resorts to talking points and scripted attacks, like the Xerox line at the debate, people don't like it.
2. Stop flipping off "small state" voters. I live in one of Hillary's "Big States", and it's still offensive when she suggests that some state's voters are more valuable than others. Besides, with proportional representation, Hillary can still pick up delegates in Obama's states just by being there. Hillary, the 50 State strategy works.
3. Keep the attacks substantive. Mocking "Hope" and "Change" is a losing strategy. So is bringing up flimsy crap like Rezko. Her advantage on Healthcare is significant. She's right that a plan without a mandate won't be Universal, and people who can afford it will wait until they get sick. What Obama can't say is that the only reason he doesn't have a mandate is that it'll never get through Congress like that. In real life, they'll have to throw in some kind of back-door, de-facto mandate, but he can't sell it like that. The experience issue is a little iffier, since he has responded effectively to that. One attack that has resonated with me is the "glass jaw" charge. If she frames her experience as campaigning experience, then she has a winning issue.
4. Hammer McCain. If Democrats see her destroying the GOP nominee in substantive ways, it helps her and Obama, and it plays into her strength as a fighter. Look, the vote to authorize the war was a mistake, but it can be argued it was made in good faith. McCain has no exit door on Iraq, and he has completely blown it on the economy. She needs to not let him up off the floor.
5. Out-Barack Barack. His most effective weapon is the compliment. Right before he blasts someone on the substance, he talks about what a great "so-and-so" they are. In fact, if I were Hillary, I'd flat out say, "Senator Obama is a fresh, inspirational voice who would gain valuable experience as my Vice President."
It's not too late for Hillary to step back from the edge, but once you start down the Dark Path, the woods have a way of closing up behind you.
Update: I emailed this story to the Clinton campaign. Here's hoping she reads it before Mark Penn does.
Tommy Links
Tommy Christopher Uncut l TomMySpace l TommYoutube