Support for War Reaches Two-Year High

The Pew Research Center for the Public and the Press has released polling data that shows the American people are more optimistic now than they have been at any time since 2006 about the Iraq War. In the survey, fifty-three percent, a clear majority agreed that, "the U.S. will ultimately succeed in achieving its goals." That is up sharply from forty-two percent in September of last year, the last time the Pew Center polled that question.

The surge in optimism about the war comes as violence levels and U.S. troop casualties continue to decline as a result of the troop surge. Iraq Commander Gen. David Petraeus gave a very well received update on the progress of the troop surge in September and is scheduled to address Congress on the issue again in April. The Pew Center's results show that since his last update, the American people have been paying attention and have begun to accept the Bush Administration's contention that the war is winnable. But the results could also have implications for the presidential campaign.

Sen. John McCain, the Republican nominee, and his campaign are delighted at the results of the survey. McCain bills himself as the architect of the surge and had called for an increase in troop levels long before the plan was actually implemented. He promises to win the war in Iraq by continuing the U.S. presence there until the Iraqi government can more fully defend itself against insurgents and al-Qaeda groups. The leading Democratic contenders, Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, both pledge to remove U.S. troops from Iraq early in their presidencies. Clinton calls for troops to begin coming out within 60 days of her inauguration, Obama's plan calls for all troops to be out within 16 months of his. But the survey's results show that the American people may be coming around to favoring McCain's approach of keeping troops in place.

Forty-eight percent of those polled now believe that the war is going "very well" or "fairly well." That combined percentage is up from thirty percent in the September poll. The percentage of respondents who now say that the United States should keep troops in Iraq is in a statistical tie with those who want troops out, forty-seven to forty-nine percent. But, critically, fifty percent of self declared independents say that the U.S. should, "keep troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized." That voting bloc could help decide the election in November.

Petraeus's next progress report in April is likely to further the trend identified in the Pew poll. Americans are becoming increasingly confident that the U.S is succeeding in its mission in Iraq. As a result, Iraq is becoming less and less of a focus on the campaign trail. But McCain's campaign will seize on these results to claim vindication for his call for increasing troop levels in Iraq, while the Democratic candidates will seek to shove the results aside in favor of other domestic issues. In a campaign season where the conventional wisdom held that the Republican could not win because of the public's mood about Iraq, it would be the irony of ironies if improved public perception of the war played a part in the defeat of the Democratic candidate.