Inside Politics Daily

Obama/Clinton Ticket Can and Must Happen

Posted:
03/28/08
There is a gathering consensus among political observers that Senator Hillary Clinton cannot win the Democratic Presidential nomination, and that she should step aside soon for the good of the party. Recent polling data shows better news for McCain than Clinton or Obama. As David Knowles reports, Senator Patrick Leahy has joined that chorus urging her to step aside. I agree with Leahy's assessment, with a single caveat. From Leahy's remarks:
"There is no way that Senator Clinton is going to win enough delegates to get the nomination. She ought to withdraw and she ought to be backing Senator Obama. Now, obviously that's a decision that only she can make. Frankly I feel that she would have a tremendous career in the Senate."
In my view, Hillary Clinton's most valuable contribution will be at Barack Obama's side as his vice president, not as a senator. The case for Hillary is an easy one to make based on her qualifications. It's a tougher sale to her supporters, and perhaps to the candidate herself. One campaign insider told me he felt there was little chance of Senator Clinton joining the bottom of an Obama ticket, for a number of reasons.

After the jump, I'll make my case to Senators Clinton and Obama, and to you, the readers. Please read the whole thing before you form your opinion.



First, let me address Hillary's supporters, who may take umbrage at the notion that Senator Clinton can't catch up to Obama. I know that this campaign has been the subject of a bitter proxy war between two intensely loyal groups of supporters, and there may be some hard feelings. I would be the first person to urge Obama's supporters to show unity with their fellow Democrats, and set aside the vitriol that has been exchanged on these pages. I would also ask that you judge this argument on its merits. Many of you have expressed the opinion that, because I have voiced criticism of the conduct of the Clinton campaign, I must be anti-Hillary. Nothing could be further from the truth, as evidenced by a perusal of my previous writings.

Hillary's path to nomination, based solely on the math, is a narrow and twisted one even by her own campaign's admission, with some political analysts giving her as little as a 5% chance of success. When you add to that recent polling data that shows Obama's and Clinton's favorability ratings diverging in Barack's direction. The study seems to indicate, and Pew concludes, that Obama has weathered the Reverend Wright storm. Additionally, the demands of a knock-down, drag-out campaign are not likely to improve Hillary's favorability. Barring some huge misshap, it is extremely unlikely that Hillary will make the miraculous gains needed to catch Barack.

The Clinton campaign has grossly overstated the flexibility of pledged and Superdelegates in an effort to keep the race alive, but they ignore the political reality that no delegate will overturn the will of the people if there is a clear leader. I know a lot of political observers seem to relish telling Hillary to give it up, but that's an unproductive attitude. Senator Clinton waged a fierce campaign, she is a great American, and she is owed a graceful exit. Her call to voters not to switch to McCain may have been the first sign that reality is setting in.



The same Pew study showed some surprising numbers on the issue of the Vice Presidency. This is where I would like to address Barack Obama's supporters. A greatly disproportionate number of you don't want to see Hillary on the ticket. I chalk this up to several factors. First, Hillary has unquestionably fought a more aggressive, at times controversial, campaign than Obama. This may be cause for a more embittered Obama base. Her style of politics, like it or not, has served her well, but you should take her at her word that, when the nominee is picked, she will support him.



It reminds me of a favorite scene from that famous political drama, "Rocky 3." Rocky is fighting in an exhibition match against Hulk Hogan, who fights hard and nasty, hurling insults all the while, but at the end, when Rocky implausibly beats him, the Hulkster's demeanor softens, he smiles, shakes his hand, and they're friends. This race seemed anything but friendly, yet at the end of the day, as they both say, they will be friends.



Another contributor to this is that Barack's supporters are disproportionately young, and probably not used to this style of politics. It's not for everyone, I don't like it, but while I researched yesterday's piece, I saw that the 1988 campaign was as bad or worse than this, with a startling number of similarities. The 1990's were a time of brutal politics that make this campaign look like a game of tiddly-winks. To those voters disillusioned by this, I say forgive and forget. Hillary Clinton will benefit you much more than any other VP will.



As I've said before, Hillary can deliver women voters who might otherwise defect to McCain, who also does well with women. This was the crux of my argument with Harold Ickes on Tuesday's conference call. The Clinton campaign has argued that primary losses in battleground states will translate to general election losses, as well. I asked him if he thought that the presence of Senator Clinton on Obama's ticket, or on the campaign trail, would effectively render that argument moot. He responded with simple denial that Hillary could possibly not be the nominee.



Jonathan Alter last night on Countdown floated the notion that the 32% of Hillary supporters who promise to flip to McCain will come to their senses by November, but he didn't address McCain's strong appeal to women voters. 32% of Hillary supporters is a large bloc, certainly large enough to swing the general election. Barack would be a fool to risk that. Conversely, Obama's mainly young supporters are less likely to actually stick with McCain, who does poorly with that demo.



Some wonder if Hillary would accept such a nod, which is, I believe, the biggest possible obstacle. It is, to be sure, a tough sale to ask someone of Hillary Clinton's stature to play second-banana. My vision, though, of a Hillary Vice Presidency, is that of an Anti-Cheney, a powerful political force, but for good, not evil. I am really torn as to whether she would accept, but my instinct is that she would, for the same reason I believe Barack Obama will offer it to her.



This campaign has been called historic, and I would agree with that characterization, but I would do so because I have never seen a campaign between two smarter politicians. An Obama/Clinton campaign is the smart move, and I trust them to make it happen.



Coming Soon: McCain Defectors: Know What You're In For

Tommy Christopher

Tommy Christopher is a freelance writer, blogger, and online journalist based out of New Jersey and Washington, DC...more

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