Inside Politics Daily

Pennsylvania's Trendy New Numbers: Update

Some new polls show some movement in the Pennsylvania contest. If they are correct, and who the hell trusts polls anymore, then they indicate that Barack Obama is starting to chip away at Hillary Clinton's big lead.

Rasmussen has Hillary's lead down to 5 points:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania shows Clinton leading Barack Obama by just five percentage points, 47% to 42%. For Clinton, that five-point edge is down from a ten-point edge a week ago, a thirteen-point lead in mid-March and a fifteen-point advantage in early March.

Survey USA shows 12-point cushion for Clinton, but that's down from a 19-point advantage in their last poll.

Quinnipiac has Clinton's lead down slightly, from 12 points to 9.

PPP is the real shocker. They're the most recent, and have Obama up by 2 pts. Two weeks ago they showed Hillary leading by 26.

With 21 days to go, a lot can happen to these numbers. The closer the race, the less the overall picture will have changed in terms delegates. A blowout for Clinton, on the other hand, could get her close in terms of the popular vote, and the narrower the delegate gap, the more ammunition she'll have to fire at critics who are calling for her to exit the race. For the moment, however, the trend arrow seems to be pointing in Obama's direction since every one of these polls shows she's losing ground.

David Knowles

A journalist, musician and novelist, David Knowles has covered politics at AOL for the past two and a half years...more

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