Graphing the Surge: Petraeus Testimony Slides

Former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld once famously wondered in a memo to his staff whether the Pentagon had a handle on the proper "metrics" with which to measure success or failure in the war on terror. He would have liked to have had the slides Gen. David Petraeus was armed with for his Congressional testimony this week. The package of graphs and charts paint a clear picture of the security improvements in Iraq over the past year and show that by every measure, the troop surge has been a success.



This slide shows the downward trend in civilian deaths since the surge began in earnest in July of last year. There was no explanation for the difference between Iraqi figures and Coalition statistics; but it is clear that the surge, along with the Sunni insurgent groups siding with Iraqi and Coalition forces against al-Qaeda, has had the intended effect of reducing violence between sectarian groups and has made daily life safer for ordinary Iraqi citizens.

Get the new
PD toolbar!



This slide shows how violence between ethnic groups has been reduced in Baghdad. The Yellow, orange, and red areas are density plots of acts of violence between Sunnis and Shiites. Note that in December 2006, Baghdad was aflame in ethnic violence. Just four months later, as the first units of the surge made their way into Baghdad, violence level were beginning to subside. They have continued to decrease in frequency resulting in the relatively placid Baghdad map in the lower right corner. Gen. Petraeus allowed that some of the reduction in violence and deaths in the city is due to "sectarian hardening of certain Baghdad neighborhoods," but said that U.S. and Iraqi troops have been concentrating on "fault lines" where ethnically different neighborhoods meet in order to give Baghdadis the space and security under which to mend their differences.



This chart shows the result of improving relationships among Iraq's ethnic divides. High-profile attacks, meaning market bombings, attacks at mosques, and suicide attacks are down to less than 50% of their total since last year at this time. The recent up tick in March is a result of increased al-Qaeda activity in March as the coalition and Iraqi forces squeeze the terrorist groups out of their last remaining hideouts.



Al-Qaeda has been driven out of large areas of Iraq, most notably Anbar province, the northern suburbs of Baghdad, and the Sunni triangle south and west of the city as shown by the reduction in red areas in this slide. The terror group is now concentrated in and around Mosul and in the far northern reaches of Diyala Province, having recently been cleared out of Baqubah. The Iraqi government is readying forces to fight al-Qaeda in Mosul in what should be the decisive battle that once and for all banishes the foreign led and manned terror group from the country.



Iraq will have plenty of well trained troops to battle al-Qaeda in Mosul. Gen. Petraeus stressed that in addition to the U.S troop surge, there has been an Iraqi one as well. The Iraqi army now has 171 battalions, well over half of which are capable of leading operations. That number is up from 115 battalions when the surge was announced in January of last year. Part of that announcement was the commitment by the Iraqi government to provide the forces necessary to help secure the country. This slide shows that they have lived up to that promise.



The result of all of this is that the Iraqi have been able to take primary security responsibility for more of their own territory. Six additional provinces have been handed over to Iraqi control since last year, with two more anticipated in the next two months. Another five provinces, including the capital, are slated to be turned over by the end of this year.

It is no wonder that Gen. Petraeus's hearings on Capitol Hill yesterday and today were so uneventful. Faced with the evidence of the dramatic and quantifiable success of the troop surge, there is little for an Iraq skeptic to criticize. The war is going well thanks to the skilled leadership of Gen. Petraeus, and the patient diplomacy of Ambassador Ryan Crocker. Congress would do well to stay out of their way, and let the troops, their general , and their partners in the Iraqi government and security forces continue to win the war.


Follow PoliticsDaily On Facebook and Twitter,
and download the new Politics Daily toolbar!