Obama's Bitter Aftertaste

Barack Obama and his supporters are taking comfort in the Gallup daily tracking poll that seems to suggest his "ill-chosen words" in San Francisco have inflicted little political damage.

But the only poll that matters will be held a week from today when voters cast votes in the Pennsylvania primary. Only then will we know whether voters in small towns are "bitter" or mad as hell at Obama.

John Judis of the New Republic thinks that Obama will be the one who's bitter when all is said and done:

Some liberal commentators have downplayed the effect of Barack Obama's fundraising speech at a San Francisco fundraiser last week. But that's wishful thinking. Along with the revelations about Obama's pastor Jeremiah Wright, his remarks in San Francisco will haunt him not only in the upcoming primaries in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia, but also in the general election against John McCain, assuming he gets the Democratic nomination.

To win in November, a Democratic presidential candidate has to carry most of the industrial heartland states that stretch from Pennsylvania to Missouri. That becomes even more imperative if a Democrat can't carry Florida--and because of his relative weakness in South Florida, Obama is unlikely to do so against McCain. Ruy Teixeira and I have calculated that in the heartland states, a Democratic presidential candidate has to win from 45 to 48 percent of the white working class vote. In some states, like West Virginia and Kentucky, the percentage is well over a majority.

With just 10 contests left, Obama has yet to show that he can win over these "salt-of-the-earth" Democrats.