Deconstructing Pennsylvania

Yesterday, after a 7 week micro-focus on the Keystone state, Hillary Clinton won a decisive nearly 10-point victory over Barack Obama. Yet, the Democrat contest remains virtually unchanged. Let's look at where the race is today, and what happened in Pennsylvania.

The race, today:

-- Obama still leads in pledged (allocated by primary or caucus) delegates (1485 to 1331).

-- Clinton still leads in "super delegates" (250 to 236).

-- Obama still leads Clinton in the popular vote that counts (ahead by 1.7%, .07% if you count Florida - for which you can make a valid argument - and Clinton who claims to lead the popular vote can make that claim only by counting both Florida and Michigan, putting her .04% ahead).

-- Wtih less than 2% of the vote difference, this contest has shown a remarkably stable -- and nearly equal -- division in the Democrat party.

Let's look at the Keystone state exit polls:

-- Gun-owners made up 36% of the vote, this demographic split; 60% for Clinton,40% Obama.

-- Gender was a factor. 58% of the vote was women, 42% men. 55% of women voted for Clinton, 47% of the men. 44% of women for Obama, 53% of men.

-- Late deciders went for Clinton 3:2 (debate impact?).

-- 39% of the vote attend church weekly; they went for Clinton 3:2. White Catholics (31% of the vote) went for Clinton by 45% margin.

-- 54% of voters believe Clinton is honest and trustworthy; 67% of voters said the same of Obama.

-- 54% of voters think Obama will get the nomination; 43% think Clinton will.

-- Clinton led the 44% of voters making less than $50k/year by 10%; Obama led those over $50k by 2%.

-- Clinton led the 55% of voters without a college degree by 14%; Obama those with degrees by 8%.

-- Clinton led the 80% of the voters who were white by 20%; Obama led among the 14% who were black by 84%.

-- By age, Obama led by 16% the 10% who are 18-29; and by 12% the 17% who are 30-44. Whereas Clinton led by 2% the 35% of the voters agreed 45-49; and led by 18% the 38% of voters 60+.

-- Clinton led by 16% among the 31% of voters in union households.

-- Dueling bookends, Obama led 69-31% in the Philadelphia area; Clinton 61-38% in the Pittsburgh area.

Observations:

-- Money can't buy love. Obama spent $11.2 million in PA, outspending Clinton at least 3:1. To put this in context, Obama spent $1 million more in PA than he spent in the 20 states total that comprised "Super Tuesday" way back in February. The average PA voter would have seen an Obama spot 100 times (they ran nearly 10,000 times).

-- PA shows clearly the fault lines in the Democrat coalition. Neither candidate has been able to unify their Party, let alone the country. Both Obama and Clinton are remarkably divisive to their own natural bases.

-- Negative campaigning works. Obama being largely unknown and untested, is particularly vulnerable to attacks. It's likely that swing voters, both in the primary and the general, will simply need a semi-plausible reason to stay home or not vote for him.

What do you think?