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Can't Win
The race for the White House has turned increasingly speculative. We've ditched all policy questions at the side of the road in favor of idyll musing as to which candidate has the best, or worst, chance of actually winning. The substantive reasons why John McCain, Barack Obama, or Hillary Clinton should win or lose have happily been traded in for whatever is handy and effective. Global food shortage? Who cares when we've got lapel pins? What matters, you see, is that we opinionators craft what sounds like a plausible reason why the person we happen to dislike is going to go down in flames. A daily cacophony of Op-Ed writers spouts forth arguments diagnosing the fatal flaws of his or her enemies. Obama cannot win because of his many distractions: Rev. Wright, Tony Rezko, and terming rural Americans "bitter". Also, he hasn't won any big states, he has failed to "seal the deal," and some white people suddenly don't like him. Hillary Clinton can't win because she distorted her trip to Bosnia, she's making a dirty play for Michigan and Florida delegates to be seated, without those states it's mathematically impossible for her to claim victory, and because she was first lady when her husband told those lies about Monica Lewinsky. John McCain is just too old to win, and he said that, if necessary, American troops might be in Iraq for 100 years, and he has a temper, and we don't know how much money his wife has, and everybody hates Republicans this year, so there's just no way he'll be president.
Well, here's a newsflash. Despite what many in the press corps claim in their well-crafted essays, despite the best efforts of the readers of blogs who cut and paste 50 definitive reasons why candidate X hasn't got a snowball's chance in hell, any one of the three remaining Senators has a legitimate shot. For whatever reason, we Americans enjoy being told who is going to win a game before the game is done, or even played, for that matter. Perhaps thinking that we have a handle on what is going to happen helps alleviate stress. But when it comes right down to it, none of us knows how this election will really end up. And all the hot air expelled over who can't possibly win is worse than the CO2 emitted from the backside of a cow. Argue till you're blue in the face about who you think deserves to be the next president. But don't tell me who can't win.
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184 comments
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David Knowles
A journalist, musician and novelist, David Knowles has covered politics at AOL for the past two and a half years...more
Comments (184)
Kjd
9:27AM Apr 25th 2008
WOW David Knowles, I like the fact that you are spot on in this article! There is no clear winner yet!
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DontThinkSo
9:33AM Apr 25th 2008
Commentary by Tony Snow on Larry King
But on the Democratic side ... you have got this charisma and emotion on the part of Obama. Can people stay in love with him from now until November? If so, it makesLi him a stronger candidate. If, on the other hand, the more you learn about him, the more you fall out of love, that's a campaign that could collapse.
Meanwhile, with Hillary Clinton, you have somebody who is battle tested. You have a political machine. You have a lot of experience. And you're going to have the ability to do whatever it takes to try to pull the party together. If you need that kind of machine operation, I think she does better.
Nice analysis..
But on the Democratic side ... you have got this charisma and emotion on the part of Obama. Can people stay in love with him from now until November? If so, it makesLi him a stronger candidate. If, on the other hand, the more you learn about him, the more you fall out of love, that's a campaign that could collapse.
Meanwhile, with Hillary Clinton, you have somebody who is battle tested. You have a political machine. You have a lot of experience. And you're going to have the ability to do whatever it takes to try to pull the party together. If you need that kind of machine operation, I think she does better.
Nice analysis..
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(0) Jaki Baez
10:06AM Apr 25th 2008
Don't think so- how much I agree with you. I don' know if David will allow me to get on this blog- it seems that he just picks the ones who are more for Obama than the iron lady. The Obama people remind me of this joke I heard: LITTLE GIRL ON A PLANE
A stranger was seated next to a little girl on the
airplane when the stranger turned to her and said,
'Let's talk. I've heard that flights go quicker if you strike up a conversation with your fellow passenger.' The little girl, who had just opened her book, closed it slowly and said to the stranger, 'What would you like to talk about?'
'Oh, I don't know,' said the stranger. 'How about
nuclear power?' and he smiles.
OK, ' she said. 'That could be an interesting topic.
But let me ask you a question first. A horse, a cow,
and a deer all eat the same stuff - grass - . Yet a
deer excretes little pellets, while a cow turns out a
flat patty, and a horse produces clumps of dried
grass. Why do you suppose that is?'
The stranger, visibly surprised by the little girl's
intelligence, thinks about it and says, 'Hmmm, I have
no idea.'
To which the little girl replies, 'Do you really feel
qualified to discuss nuclear power when you don't know
shit?
THIS IS WHAT HAS HAPPENED AS OF TODAY. The media did not show the american people starting from Iowa- to Texas- the ties that were connected to Obama- and from looking at Obama's face- it shows that he is concern about more and more "facts" arriving to the mainstream media. For the first time (because of low ratings) Msnbc is finally showing negative on Obama- but why now? Now that people have voted for him? It is better than late, so the more people see the "phoney" and "politician as Wright put on on the interview yesterday" the american people are beginning to see that maybe this battle tested woman is not too bad to have lead us. David, you need to get with the program, son.
A stranger was seated next to a little girl on the
airplane when the stranger turned to her and said,
'Let's talk. I've heard that flights go quicker if you strike up a conversation with your fellow passenger.' The little girl, who had just opened her book, closed it slowly and said to the stranger, 'What would you like to talk about?'
'Oh, I don't know,' said the stranger. 'How about
nuclear power?' and he smiles.
OK, ' she said. 'That could be an interesting topic.
But let me ask you a question first. A horse, a cow,
and a deer all eat the same stuff - grass - . Yet a
deer excretes little pellets, while a cow turns out a
flat patty, and a horse produces clumps of dried
grass. Why do you suppose that is?'
The stranger, visibly surprised by the little girl's
intelligence, thinks about it and says, 'Hmmm, I have
no idea.'
To which the little girl replies, 'Do you really feel
qualified to discuss nuclear power when you don't know
shit?
THIS IS WHAT HAS HAPPENED AS OF TODAY. The media did not show the american people starting from Iowa- to Texas- the ties that were connected to Obama- and from looking at Obama's face- it shows that he is concern about more and more "facts" arriving to the mainstream media. For the first time (because of low ratings) Msnbc is finally showing negative on Obama- but why now? Now that people have voted for him? It is better than late, so the more people see the "phoney" and "politician as Wright put on on the interview yesterday" the american people are beginning to see that maybe this battle tested woman is not too bad to have lead us. David, you need to get with the program, son.
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(0) John
10:02AM Apr 25th 2008
David,
I don't know the chemical formula, but I believe it's the methane gas emitted from the cow's rump (and occasionally Katherine's pen) that is destroying the ozone layer.
John in Philadelphia
OBAMA '08
I don't know the chemical formula, but I believe it's the methane gas emitted from the cow's rump (and occasionally Katherine's pen) that is destroying the ozone layer.
John in Philadelphia
OBAMA '08
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(0) Katherine
10:06AM Apr 25th 2008
John, don't get bitter cause you lost PA.
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(0) Katherine
10:08AM Apr 25th 2008
David.
YOU DELETED A POST OF MINE!???
WTF!
YOU DELETED A POST OF MINE!???
WTF!
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(0) Lizzie
10:08AM Apr 25th 2008
Perhaps another debate between the Democratic candidates could more clearly define where they really stand on the issues. But his would require the cooperation of two consenting adults. Unfortunately, Barack Obama isn't one of them.
PS. Contrary to Mr. Obama's claim that there have been too many debates already, the fact is there were only four involving him and Senator Clinton directly.
PS. Contrary to Mr. Obama's claim that there have been too many debates already, the fact is there were only four involving him and Senator Clinton directly.
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(0) Sandy
10:09AM Apr 25th 2008
If you want Hillary for your next President be ready to hear one thing from her mouth and then she will do what is better for all the Rich people, anyone that makes $109,000,000 dollars can't have any idea how we all live, I don't care what she says she tells you what you want to hear, same old POLITICS!!!
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(0) suzanne
10:11AM Apr 25th 2008
LOVED THIS!!!!!!!!
BTW I also love my little "Flag" pins they make me feel good.
I don't think it's dirty of Hllary Clinton to want my vote to count in Florida.
Suzanne
Clinton 08'
BTW I also love my little "Flag" pins they make me feel good.
I don't think it's dirty of Hllary Clinton to want my vote to count in Florida.
Suzanne
Clinton 08'
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(0) NC Voter
10:13AM Apr 25th 2008
Photograph of Bill Clinton and Rev. Wright Surfaces
By Kate Phillips
The Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. and President Bill Clinton at a prayer breakfast at the White House in September 1998.During one of the most difficult periods in the presidency of Bill Clinton, he addressed a group of clerics at an annual prayer breakfast in September 1998 just as the Starr report outlining his dalliance with Monica Lewinsky was about to be published.
Among those in attendance, was the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr., who is seen shaking hands with Mr. Clinton in a photograph provided today by the Obama campaign. Mr. Wright’s relationship with Senator Barack Obama, as his longtime pastor, has been the subject of considerable controversy in recent days because of incendiary excerpts of sermons Mr. Wright gave at their church, Trinity United Church of Christ, in Chicago.
In providing the photograph to The New York Times, the Obama campaign appeared to be trying to divert some attention to the Clintons after a week in which Mr. Obama’s relationship with Mr. Wright has left him facing one of the biggest challenges of his campaign. There is nothing in the picture or the note that addresses whether Mr. Clinton had met Mr. Wright prior to the White House meeting or whether he or Mrs. Clinton knew anything about Mr. Wright’s views.
By Kate Phillips
The Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. and President Bill Clinton at a prayer breakfast at the White House in September 1998.During one of the most difficult periods in the presidency of Bill Clinton, he addressed a group of clerics at an annual prayer breakfast in September 1998 just as the Starr report outlining his dalliance with Monica Lewinsky was about to be published.
Among those in attendance, was the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr., who is seen shaking hands with Mr. Clinton in a photograph provided today by the Obama campaign. Mr. Wright’s relationship with Senator Barack Obama, as his longtime pastor, has been the subject of considerable controversy in recent days because of incendiary excerpts of sermons Mr. Wright gave at their church, Trinity United Church of Christ, in Chicago.
In providing the photograph to The New York Times, the Obama campaign appeared to be trying to divert some attention to the Clintons after a week in which Mr. Obama’s relationship with Mr. Wright has left him facing one of the biggest challenges of his campaign. There is nothing in the picture or the note that addresses whether Mr. Clinton had met Mr. Wright prior to the White House meeting or whether he or Mrs. Clinton knew anything about Mr. Wright’s views.
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(0) david knowles
10:15AM Apr 25th 2008
Katherine,
I assure you it wasn't me. Maybe you just hit the wrong button. By now you should know that I don't ban comments I don't agree with. Please, I thought we had an understanding.
I assure you it wasn't me. Maybe you just hit the wrong button. By now you should know that I don't ban comments I don't agree with. Please, I thought we had an understanding.
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(0) Jaki Baez
10:15AM Apr 25th 2008
It seems that people get jealous that someone can make over 8 years 109 millions. I wish I could be so lucky. It shows (not politics) but Finanicial intelligence to me. If you can make this much money for yourselves- maybe you can get us back to 1993 where I could go and shop at Victoria secret- macy and all the other stores that are worth shopping at. If some of the ignorant voters remember (I doubt it- they were probably in their diapers) that President Clinton released the oil reserves for us in the 90s. The arab countries got scare and brought their prices down. We were paying pennies for regular at that time- and look at the prices today.....At least I can say to the Clintons- they may have a lot of negative clouds around them- but they are true americans! Now, someone who goes around chanting "hope and Change" and in the meantime hangs around with anti-americans.
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(0) Katherine
10:16AM Apr 25th 2008
David likes to censor people who disagree with him I see. He must think I am from FL or MI.
Yeah, it's real down and dirty to try to get ALL the states to be counted. It's DIRTY to screw them over.
Yeah, it's real down and dirty to try to get ALL the states to be counted. It's DIRTY to screw them over.
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(0) davis
10:18AM Apr 25th 2008
Knowles,
Your essay seems to suggest that all the arguements that you list are valid. When in actuallity some are factual and some are not. You took the easy way out by just putting all the arguments on the table without any real analysis.
The facts are that the democratic party has selected their candidate and that candidate is Barack Obama. The only reason the remaining superdelegates have not stepped in ane ended the process is their concern for the party.
If the SDs step in and end it, the supporters of Clinton, who have not accepted the reality that she will not be the nominee, will rebel against the party in the general election. They must allow the process to play out so the Clinton supports can be whined off of their candidate.
The Clinton supporters are now in the final throws of Hillary's political death. They are in denial because they thought it would never happen.
So the SDs are giving the Clinton supporter more time to deal with reality. After they clear their minds and emerge from the Clinton fog they will be ready to focus on the next task, defeating John McCain, but right now they are still under the spell of the Clintons.
So, your analysis, or lack thereof, is just giving false hope to the already delusional Clinton supports and thus prolonging their agony and the process as a whole. As a result of the lack of insight of writers like you the electorate is kept in a perpetual state of unrest.
Your essay seems to suggest that all the arguements that you list are valid. When in actuallity some are factual and some are not. You took the easy way out by just putting all the arguments on the table without any real analysis.
The facts are that the democratic party has selected their candidate and that candidate is Barack Obama. The only reason the remaining superdelegates have not stepped in ane ended the process is their concern for the party.
If the SDs step in and end it, the supporters of Clinton, who have not accepted the reality that she will not be the nominee, will rebel against the party in the general election. They must allow the process to play out so the Clinton supports can be whined off of their candidate.
The Clinton supporters are now in the final throws of Hillary's political death. They are in denial because they thought it would never happen.
So the SDs are giving the Clinton supporter more time to deal with reality. After they clear their minds and emerge from the Clinton fog they will be ready to focus on the next task, defeating John McCain, but right now they are still under the spell of the Clintons.
So, your analysis, or lack thereof, is just giving false hope to the already delusional Clinton supports and thus prolonging their agony and the process as a whole. As a result of the lack of insight of writers like you the electorate is kept in a perpetual state of unrest.
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(0) david knowles
10:23AM Apr 25th 2008
Davis,
You may argue whether or not it's fair for the supers to decide this, but the fact is that it is perfectly within the rules. The problem is with the rules themselves, and I hope the party will address this mess before the next time around. You may know that I support Obama, and think he's the best person for the job, but he may lose. My real beef, however, was with people who assure you that a particular candidate can't win. Can Hillary still win? Yes. Is it likely? Not from my vantage.
You may argue whether or not it's fair for the supers to decide this, but the fact is that it is perfectly within the rules. The problem is with the rules themselves, and I hope the party will address this mess before the next time around. You may know that I support Obama, and think he's the best person for the job, but he may lose. My real beef, however, was with people who assure you that a particular candidate can't win. Can Hillary still win? Yes. Is it likely? Not from my vantage.
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(0) DontThinkSo
10:25AM Apr 25th 2008
?Could Barack Obama run strongly in Pennsylvania, Ohio and other big states in a general election even after running weakly during the nomination phase? That is the question.?
That is the question asked by the Associated Press today.
If Pa is any indication...the answer is a resounding NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That is the question asked by the Associated Press today.
If Pa is any indication...the answer is a resounding NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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(0) John
10:26AM Apr 25th 2008
Katherine,
I did say "occasionally" like methane gas. And I'm not bitter about Hillary's single-digit win in Pennsylvania. Really. I mean it. I'm not. I swear. No kidding.
John in Philadelphia
OBAMA '08
(or Hillary. Sort of. Maybe. But definitely not McCain.)
I did say "occasionally" like methane gas. And I'm not bitter about Hillary's single-digit win in Pennsylvania. Really. I mean it. I'm not. I swear. No kidding.
John in Philadelphia
OBAMA '08
(or Hillary. Sort of. Maybe. But definitely not McCain.)
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(0) suzanne
10:26AM Apr 25th 2008
Jaki Baez
Great post.. finally yes I also have heard the "great" (?) political round tables turning ever so slowly toward Hillary Clinton as the electable one!!
Finally people can see Obama is an image drawn by David Axelrod...
Suzanne
Clinton 08'
Great post.. finally yes I also have heard the "great" (?) political round tables turning ever so slowly toward Hillary Clinton as the electable one!!
Finally people can see Obama is an image drawn by David Axelrod...
Suzanne
Clinton 08'
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(0) DontThinkSo
10:27AM Apr 25th 2008
If the Democratic rules were like the Republican, winner take all delegates...We would be asking Obama to drop out.
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(0) Blondssspice
11:13AM Apr 25th 2008
CONGRATULATIONS HILLARY for winning HUGE in Pennsylvania by a huge margin. This is a precurser of GREAT things to come. GOD BLESS HILLARY AND GOD BLESS AMERICA
Obama outspent Hillary by 3 : 1 and he LOST by 10 points.
This means that hard working Americans are GETTING THE MESSAGE. People KNOW they can TRUST HILLARY and the Obamas promises mean nothing. Obama has done nothing for Illinois, can't expect him to do anything for USA. He can't even tell us what changes he is proposing. Heaven help us!!! We are a God loving Christian nation, love of country and Constitution. PLEASE OBAMA don't ridicule America... and don't try to change it!!!
VOTE HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT. OUR BEST CHOICE FOR OUR BEAUTIFUL AMERICA.
Obama outspent Hillary by 3 : 1 and he LOST by 10 points.
This means that hard working Americans are GETTING THE MESSAGE. People KNOW they can TRUST HILLARY and the Obamas promises mean nothing. Obama has done nothing for Illinois, can't expect him to do anything for USA. He can't even tell us what changes he is proposing. Heaven help us!!! We are a God loving Christian nation, love of country and Constitution. PLEASE OBAMA don't ridicule America... and don't try to change it!!!
VOTE HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT. OUR BEST CHOICE FOR OUR BEAUTIFUL AMERICA.
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