North Carolina Results Live Thread

Full text of the thread after the jump, updates here:

0:10AM OK, ladies and germs, I'll be signing off now. Thanks for joining me. Keep talking, and I'll check back here tomorrow. Kat, you hang in there, and don't let anybody rub it in. O, it's time to make nice. Tom, John, nice commentary tonight. MG, so quiet tonight. Diana says "hi!"

Russert just compared Hillary to an aging ballplayer, an analogy I thought of earlier. I hope tomorrow is Hillary's "Lou Gehrig Day," and not the start of a "Vegas Elvis" phase, to mix a metaphor. Good night, everybody!

11:33PM OK, I don't think much is going to change in NC. I closing, I was just talking to Diana, and we agreed that it looks like the Supes will fall to Obama, and I was saying, "Yeah, but the wild card here is that they're Democrats, y'know?" and she said, "Yeah, they could spoil a wet dream."

Funny, and true. The herd of cats needs to get its stuff together quickly and not let Hillary twist in the wind. They need to announce the ticket quickly.

11:02PM That's more like it! I just got an email from the Clinton Press Office. A memo called "Tie-breaker," a very long one.

10:58PM Famous last words:

On May 2, Hillary told a rally in Kinston, NC the following:

"This primary election on Tuesday is a game changer. This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward. The entire country--probably even a lot of the world is looking to see what North Carolina decides."

10:56PM Classy speech. It reminded me of her Texas speech after South Carolina.

10:55PM NC is at 56-42 for Obama.

10:53PM Another shift in rationale: Now, Red states matter.

10:52PM Chelsea!!!... Doesn't this sound like a curtain call?

10:49PM Evan Bayh is another guy who didn't call me back today. Does anyone still care what Rendell's press secretary told me?

Today, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama face off in North Carolina and Indiana, with a total of 187 delegates at stake. That number, 187, is also police code for a homicide. Will today's primaries result in a chalk outline around one or the other's candidacy? I'll also keep you updated on Operation: RonDemption.

As of this writing, according to the Real Clear Politics averages, Senator Obama holds a narrowed but comfortable 8 point lead in North Carolina, while Senator Clinton is up by 2.2 points, but trending sharply upward in recent days. Check back here periodically, as I try to get some internal polling data from the campaigns.

I'll be back at 7pm or earlier to spend primary night with you, as we get the answer to that question. I will be spending much of my day today trying to bug as many political players as I can, so hopefully, I will have some stories to tell while we wait for the results to come in. My hunch is that we will exit this day the way we entered it, with both candidates on a collision course in Denver. Talk it over, and I'll see you tonight.

Correction: I will be handling results from North Carolina, and my colleague, Liza Porteus Viana will handle Indiana. See you at 7. Full text of the thread after the jump, updates here:

10:48PM Hey, MG, nice of you to show up! And hi, Alicia, did you take any pictures? Tom, go easy. She's our next VP.

10:40PM NC has closed to a 14% margin with 85% of precincts reporting.

10:38PM She's calling Indiana the tie-breaker, and says it's "full-speed on to the White House."

10:37PM Hillary speaks. There's Chelsea! (squeal)

10:34PM Brian Williams just said someone reported Senator Clinton looking wistful, and speculated about th possibility of late internal polling. I wil say this, the silence from the Clinton press office via email is deafening. Usually, they out-spam the Obama camp by 3 to 1, but I've gotten nothing tonight, and 4 from the Obama camp.

10:26PM Hillary's speech may hold some clues as to what's next. Back to the gas tax, I finally got a partial answer to my follow-up question from last Thursday. My email exchange with Howard Wolfson:

Tommy Christopher: I wanted to follow up on John Dickerson's question. He asked if you could produce any independent experts who think that the gas tax holiday is a good idea, and you could not. You said, essentially, that a President listens to experts and then acts, in this case ignoring all of them. How would you differentiate that from something like George W Bush and the Iraq Study Group?

Howard Wolfson: Tommy, Would you really equate a suspension of the gas tax holiday with a decision to go to war?

Tommy Christopher: Howard, no, I would equate ignoring a unanimity of expert opinion in both cases under the cloak of being "resolute" or "decisive. Phil seemed to be saying that if a president thinks something is the right thing to do, he or she can ignore all advice or opinion to the contrary. That is exactly what President Bush did with the Iraq study group. I'm asking what the difference in that thought process is?

He hasn't answered me back yet.



10:22PM Howard Fineman reports that the Obama camp is signaling a willingness to deal on Mi and Fl.

10:19PM From Bill Burton, Obama spokesman, via email:

According to the latest exit polling data, 17% of voters in the Indiana primary today said they would vote for John McCain in a Clinton/McCain matchup.

41% of that number is constituted by people who voted Clinton in the primary but also indicated they will vote for McCain in the general election.

That comes out to just under 7% of the primary electorate the number that may be attributed to a "Limbaugh Effect."



10:04PM I think what's happened tonight is that the Clinton campaign way overplayed their hand with this gas tax holiday. I was really taken aback Thursday at Phil Singer's response to John Dickerson, and then Hillary doubled down on This Week, then again with their last ads in this primary. I think enough voters saw the disconnect between all of the experts vs. what amounted to a roll of the dice for chump change, and felt they were having their intelligence insulted.

10:02PM Kat, whatever it is, don't you worry about it. Just remember how cool Karl Rove, et al, were going into the mid-terms.

9:55PM I'm watching the speech now. He seems to be working on keeping the joint ticket idea alive. I would not be surprised if they announced the whole ticket this week. The more I think about it, the better an idea it is, it's a great way for Hillary to save face, and it ends the distraction.

9:44PM The Clinton campaign blew it a little on the expectations game, high-stepping the last few days when the polls tightened. That's a rare miscalculation for them.



9:42PM Sorry, I had to go pick my son up from school. I'm sure that happens to Keith Olbermann all the time. Holy crap, look at Indiana!

9:03PM The best move now would be for Barack and Hillary to announce their joint ticket tomorrow. Don't let the sting of this fight linger. I hope Obama is smart enough to do it, and Hillary realistic enough.

9:02PM Even if Hillary is not ready to concede, which I don't think she will, the pressure to drop out will be enormous.

9:00PM The way things are going, I think this is going to be it. Hi, O!!

8:53PM Kat, I did a piece recently with the voter ID stats in it, I think there are more Dems, but the biggest growth was in Indies. I'll try to track it down.

8:50PM Chuck Todd is talking about the possibility of an upset in Indy. With the crushing victory in NC, it looks really bad for Hillary. Now, what does she do if these results hold, and an avalanche of Supes go to Obama this week? I honestly don't know. The scrap and tenacity of Hillary Clinton is amazing.

8:44PM Not to encroach on Liza, but IN is narrowing, and if Tom F is right and the metro areas still haven't reported, that trend will continue. A 28 point victory in NC vs a single digit one for Hillary in IN will make for compelling breakfast reading for Supes tomorrow.

8:41PM 63-35 with 15%. Exits from NBC on Limbaugh: Party Affiliation 67% dem, 22 Indy, 11 Republican. Of Republicans, 52% Clinton 48% Obama, and 58% of them think Obama is more likely to beat McCain. They missed the memo that the Dittos lie to pollsters.

8:36PM I wonder if the Clinton campaign's crowing about getting uneducated voters is backfiring, with people in that demo not seeing themselves that way.



8:34PM NBC reports 11% of the votes in IN were GOP, with the vote split 51-48. Of course, Rush has told his dittoheads to lie to exit pollsters.

8:29PM The Obama camp sent out this link to the press on the Rush Limbaugh Operation:Chaos effect. Definite D move.

8:27PM John, Kaflooey, put your IQ's away, this is a family thread!

8:24PM Indiana is narrowing as North Carolina remains a 30 point route. If these numbers hold, or even close, this could be done by the end of the week.

8:23PM Kat, I'm hurt. You're calling me moot? John, Tzada, hi. FYI, Diana is without computer tonight, but is feeding me CNN's exits via text message. Thanks, Di!

8:17PM 65-33 with 8%. There are 115 delegates at stake here, vs 72 in Indiana, so this is the place to score the big victory. With 92
% of the black vote, expect Hillary's supporters to cry "identity politics," but the campaign has been coding its message heavily toward white voters for some time now.

8:09PM Matthews wonders if the "Limbaugh Effect" will taint Clinton's margin in IN. Good question, a bit self-fulfilling though.

8:08PM I'm going to check comments now. Hi, Kat, Tom, Kaflooey...

8:06PM With 4% reporting, NC is 65-35% for Obama.

8:00PM They're asking how many of Hillary's white voters will go to McCain if Obama is the nominee. I think that question has a much different answer once the Dems start campaigning against McCain and people see the differences more clearly.

7:58PM Very early returns have a 64-34 margin for Obama in NC. No way that holds up.

7:55PM Clinton 63% of white women, 54% of white men.

7:51PM Exit polls: 91% of the black vote for Obama, 36% of the white vote, 54% of white voters under age 30. Hillary got 61% of the over 30 whites.



7:48PM Operation:RonDemption is flattening out, with most of the buzz dying down today. I called the Paul campaign today to see where they are with it, but I haven't heard back yet. My right bicep might be safe after all.

7:45PM Scarborough is spinning hard for Obama. Although Hillary needed a sweep to really change things, a big delegate win in NC could start the SuperDelegate dominoes falling tomorrow, and the whole thing could be over by week's end.

7:41PM Chris Matthews just compared the saturation Wright coverage to a baptism. Not a bad metaphor.

7:39PM In NC, voters concerned most about the economy favored Obama 53%-44%.

7:37PM Obama is expected to get at least 36% of the white vote in NC, according to NBC's exit polls.

7:36PM The early call bodes well for the margin in NC.

7:31PM The question now is, by how much? Avoiding a stunning loss there must be something of a relief to the Obama campaign, but the margin will play a big part in the spin battle.

7:30PM MSNBC projects Obama to win North Carolina.

7:28PM Back to Rendell. I asked, if the gas tax issue is such a great cause that Senator Clinton would ignore all of the experts, and trumpet it as a sign of her commitment to working class voters in Indiana, why is it not in the Oregon ads?

7:19PM CNN's exit polls make a strong case for a joint ticket. 45% of Hillary voters say they'll support Barack if he's the nominee, versus 70% of Obama voters saying they'd support Clinton if she is the nominee. 55% of Hillary's voters is a big bloc to pass up. I guess it's easier to be generous when you're winning.

7:09PM My doctor emailed me an article that keeps crap like Reverend Wright and gas tax holidays in perspective.

"Suicides among troops returning from Iraq and Afghanistan may eventually outnumber combat deaths, a top federal mental health official said."

7:07PM All the charisma just whooshed out of the room! Oh, wait, it's just John Kerry.



7:04PM I would like to see some exit polling on the gas tax holiday.

7:00PM I asked Howard Wolfson about the new ad on Monday's conference call, whether the omission meant that they were re-thinking the policy or did they think it would already be enacted by then. The response was, "Neither. We expect to continue talking about the gas tax holiday in upcoming contests."

6:55PM I pretty much struck out today getting players on the phone. I did speak with Governor Ed Rendell's press secretary, Chuck Ardo. I wanted to talk with Rendell about the gas tax holiday and the fact that it doesn't appear in the new ads running in Oregon.

6:48PM Yes, I started early. Any of you who want to play along, I'm keeping it on MSNBC unless otherwise noted.


6:48PM Yes, I started early.

6:26PM According to MSNBC's exit polls, 48% of voters in NC thought the Reverend Wright situation was important to them, including 45% of black voters. Polls close in NC at 7:30.

Rachel Maddow says that Hillary could make a case to the SuperDelegates to decide on her now if she sweeps tonight.

I love Rachel, but I don't see the Supes overturning the pledged delegates without more cover than "momentum." To be sure, a sweep by Clinton would hurt Obama badly.