Gut Check Time for Hillary

Over or not over? I'm going to say... not over, but by any rights it should be. Final count in IN shows a Clinton victory, barely. And of course the dreadful drubbing she took in Indiana. Which means that Obama beat the line. According to the analysis by Jay Cost, Clinton did as well in IN as she did in OH with her constituent groups, but Obama has solidified his hold on the black vote and college educated whites.

Theres good news, but mostly bad news in there for Hillary. She has an argument that she can make that no Democrat can win on the strength only of the black vote and suburban college educated liberals, but that means the Democratic party would have to disenfranchise the driving force of their liberal base along with their most solid minority group. I can't imagine, even in the most brass knuckle politics environment, that scenario playing out. I think she's done. Whether she wants to accept it or not is another question.

One reason she may not accept it is that two very friendly Clinton states are coming up, WV and KY, both with heavy Appalachian contingents. She should blow out Obama here and if she does, she can make the electability argument again, although most electoral paths to victory for Democrats do not include Kentucky.

Let the rumor mongering begin. At 2am a report went out on ABC that she had cancelled all events and cleared her schedule, but as of this morning it appears a full campaign schedule is still in place.