Obama to Declare Victory on May 21

In a move that will rock the Democratic foundations, Barack Obama will reportedly announce his victory as the Democratic nominee following the May 20 primaries in Kentucky and Oregon. The bold (perhaps reckless) declaration will excite party loyalists and spark an aggressive response from the Clinton campaign.

Both sides will cite variously tortured numbers in support of their interpretations of the Democratic party's torturous nominating process. Obama's campaign will peg the threshold at 2,025 pledged and super-delegates (a tally excluding Florida and Michigan). Clinton will include those states and demand a total count of 2,209. Yet, Obama will not have met either of those markers following the May 20 primaries. Instead, Obama will have won the majority of pledged delegates (1,627) - excluding, of course, those from Florida and Michigan, which would raise the bar to 1,784 (which Obama will not likely reach on May 20). Clinton will also retort that pledged delegates alone do not win the contest, but only those Illuminati-esque super-delegate can finally award victory. And then there is the whole issue of the popular vote, which might not be in accord with the delegate count (with or without the two states in limbo).

Regardless of the dizzying math and rivaling perspectives, the inescapable result of an Obama declaration of victory will be that Clinton will cry foul. Both campaigns will then inundate the public with interpretations, constructions, statistics and a load of other perplexing formulations which will all boil down to calling the other candidate a cheat. The wedge between Obama and Clinton supporters will widen, and Clinton voters will engender animosities toward Obama which will make their conversion to his camp (following his inevitable nomination) all the more difficult. A Clinton vice-presidency will become less palatable as she resorts to personal dispersions against her too-presumptive challenger.

Obama's early declaration will be premature, and its effect will be to harden Clinton supporters and engulf the Democratic party in a bickering tainted with charges of fraud. Perhaps McCain could be so lucky that one of the campaigns would threaten a lawsuit. Obama's gamble will win him (unneeded) media attention, but it will not secure his nomination any sooner than would otherwise have occurred.