Swing State Dems: We Got Your Back, Hill

To expand upon my post yesterday about how Hillary Clinton isn't giving up in her White House bid, over a dozen "swing state" Democratic members of Congress today sent a letter to others in their party saying Clinton is the best option for the "top of the ticket."

Not the best option for just "the ticket," but "the top" of the ticket. That's what's needed to beat John McCain in the general election, they say. The text of the letter is after the jump.

The thing is, they may be right when it comes to battleground states.

Three simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released May 1 show that among white working class voters, Clinton has strong leads over McCain - and runs much better than Barack Obama - in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. If Obama is the Democratic nominee, he's in a tight race with McCain in Florida and Ohio, but takes Pennsylvania.

Quinnipiac pollsters say this is Clinton's strongest overall performance in those three vital swing states in the past two years. This survey also found:

-Florida: Clinton tops McCain 49 - 41%; McCain gets 44% to Obama's 43%
-Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 38%; McCain gets 43% to Obama's 42%
-Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 51 - 37%; Obama leads McCain 47 - 38%

"If the super delegates are looking at electability, these results could be a shot in the arm for Sen. Clinton," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "No one has won the White House since 1960 without carrying two of these three swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. And she clearly is running much better against Sen. McCain than is Sen. Obama, at least for now."Of course, that was before her narrower-than-expected win in Indiana and her loss in North Carolina. On top of that, ABC News says today for the first time this campaign season, Obama has surpassed Clinton's support among superdelegates.

But I don't think that will have any affect on Clinton. Speaking in Charleston, W.Va., yesterday, she continued the message that she's got more muscle than Obama when it comes to the general election matchup.

"Some call you swing voters. I call you Americans," she said. "Ask yourself who is the stronger candidate to win West Virginia in the fall against John McCain."

Here's the test of the Democrats' letter:

Dear Fellow Democrat,

We are writing to you because of our shared belief in our Party's principles and our commitment to ensuring that we have the strongest possible nominee to lead our ticket against John McCain and the Republicans in November.

The decision about who to support to be our Party's nominee is not one that any of us should take lightly. We haven't. But, after giving this important decision a great deal of thought, we are convinced that Hillary Clinton has the vision, skills and commitment to make the changes our country needs. As Democrats who have run and won in competitive Congressional districts and battleground states, we believe that Hillary is best positioned to successfully lead the Democratic ticket in districts and states like ours around the country.

As you know, Hillary has racked up victories in bellwether states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and now Indiana that are absolutely vital to winning the White House and maintaining our Congressional majority in the fall. Hillary has won the big battleground states by connecting with voters whose support we must have to win the general election. Her victories in Pennsylvania and Indiana were all the more impressive after being outspent by as much as two or three to one.

Pennsylvania was not just a victory for Hillary Clinton. It was also a wake- up call for superdelegates, forcing us to ask ourselves two essential questions: 1) Which candidate can carry the magic 270 electoral votes to win in the fall? 2) Which candidate is most likely to help our fellow Democrats in down-ballot races? We believe the answer to both of these questions is Hillary Clinton.

On the first question, Hillary has shown she can win the all-important battleground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida even while being outspent. This speaks to her ability to connect with voters we must deliver in the fall, including blue collar Democrats who can sway this election as they have in the past.

On the second question, Hillary has won rural and suburban districts which we as Democrats must carry to maintain our edge in Congress. Of the fifteen districts rated "toss up" by the Cook Political Report, Hillary has now won ten. Of the 20 districts we picked up in 2006 that had gone for President Bush just two years before, Hillary has now won 16. She is strong in the places we must win to hold and expand our majority.

This is a historically close race. The candidates are separated by a mere percentage point or two and the path to victory for each candidate is the same: win in the upcoming states and secure enough pledged and automatic delegates to get to the number required to win the nomination.

The race now turns to the remaining six contests where the focus will be squarely on the economy. Voters in our states and across the country are voting on issues that affect them, their communities and their children's future. We believe that they will decide that Hillary is the candidate who best understands those issues and has the best solutions to address them.

We Democrats are justifiably proud of both of our candidates, and if Senator Obama is our Party's nominee, we will enthusiastically support him. But our responsibility is not to choose simply to support the eventual nominee; it is to help select the nominee who is best for our party and best for our country. Our choice is clear: Hillary Clinton is that candidate. We believe she should be your choice as well.

Thank you for consideration.

Sincerely,

Rep. Michael Arcuri (NY-24)
Rep. Shelley Berkley (NV-01)
Rep. Marion Berry (AR-1)
Rep. Henry Cuellar (TX-28)
Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20)
Rep. Gene Green (TX -29)
Rep. John Hall (NY-19)
Rep. Darlene Hooley (OR-5)
Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (FL-17)
Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (OH-11)
Rep. Silvestre Reyes (TX-16)
Rep. Mike Ross (AR-4)
Rep. Joe Sestak (PA-8)
Rep. Ike Skelton (MO-4)
Rep. John Tanner (TN-8)
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL-20)