Clinton's $20 Million Hole

Over the weekend, Hillary Clinton's campaign confirmed that it is now $20 million dollars in debt. Some have speculated that any deal that lays the groundwork for her exit from the Democratic race will have Barack Obama picking up Clinton's trail of unpaid bills. While many Clinton supporters scoff at this notion, and cheer their candidate to soldier on until the convention in August, there may be a more compelling reason to settle up before then. Actually, make that 11 million reasons. From US News and World Report:

Experts disagree on whether or not Clinton will actually stick in the fight until the Democratic National Convention in August. But the date looms large for another reason--at least, if she hopes to recoup any of the million s she has sunk into the campaign. Thanks to a little-known provision in 2002's McCain-Feingold campaign-finance reform bill, a campaign must repay the loan to a candidate before Election Day. In this case, that's the nominating convention. After the election has passed, a bankrupt campaign is limited to gathering just $250,000 from contributors, which means that modes sum is all it can give back to a candidate. In short, Clinton stands to lose $11,150,000. "If she wants to be repaid, she'd have to move on that between now and the national convention," says former Federal Election Commission chairman Michael Toner."

Each time the Clintons have dipped into their personal fortune to help fund the campaign, they've termed the infusion a "loan," which, one assumes, is meant to be re-paid. The irony that John McCain's legislation (so reviled by conservatives) might be the final nudge that pushes Clinton from the race is all a bit Twilight Zone. But the rub here is that if Clinton exits the race now, her fundraising opportunities go away while, baring an Obama bailout, the debt remains. That means she may opt to stay in, try to spend a tiny amount in the remaining contests, raise cash, and then quit at the last possible moment, right before the convention so as to avoid the campaign finance restrictions.

No word yet on how much of the $42.3 million Mitt Romney lent his own campaign that Mitt has bee able to recoup.