Do Bears Campaign in the Woods?

Should Barack Obama pick Hillary Clinton to be his vice-president? Never has such an obvious answer been so hotly debated. The answer really only depends on one factor: How much does Barack Obama want to win by in November?

There is very compelling evidence to suggest that Barack Obama would wipe the floor with John McCain if he named my dog his VP. Even at this early stage in the just-begun general election, Obama leads McCain nationally by a significant margin, and outpolls McCain on most key issues. Once the polls reflect Obama's shift to campaigning against McCain, I expect Obama's leads to increase. Additionally, a new poll shows only 17% of Clinton supporters threatening to jump, down from a 45% high

Even so, these are Democrats, so with the stakes so high, nothing should be left to chance. An Obama/Clinton ticket has much to recommend it, most of all a guaranteed victory in November.

Objections to the "Dream Ticket," on the other hand, are either buttressed by the balsawood of outmoded conventional wisdom ( you know, the kind that says Obama should pick an older white guy from a battleground state. Hey, how 'bout McCain?), or are predicated on the type of intrigue that mainly appeals to the tin-foil/black-helicopter set (Hillary will have all of her enemies rubbed out and take over the World!)

Then, there's Camille Paglia's hyperbolic take on the whole thing:

Hillary for veep? Are you mad? What party nominee worth his salt would chain himself to a traveling circus like the Bill and Hillary Show? If the sulky bearded lady wasn't biting the new president's leg, the oafish carnival barker would be sending in the clowns to lure all the young ladies into back-of-the-tent sword-swallowing. It would be a seamy orgy of scheming and screwing. Hillary could never be content with second place. But neither could an alpha male like Obama. The vice-president should be an accomplished but subordinate personality. An Obama-Hillary ticket might tickle party regulars, but it would be a big fat minus in the general election. Republicans have shrewdly stockpiled a mammoth arsenal of past scandals to strafe Hillary with. Only a sentimental masochist would want to relive the tawdry 1990s.

OK, Camille, while that was creepily hot, it misses the mark entirely.

She correctly identifies Obama and Clinton as alpha types, but Hillary would not be settling for 2nd place, she would be accepting the #1 position ever held by a woman in American history. As for Obama, I believe his smarts far outweigh his ego. Having Hillary as his Veep gets him a win in November, and it locks her out of running against him in 2012.

I think the fundamental misunderstanding about the "Dream Ticket" is the math. People view this as an equation of addition and subtraction, adding the candidates' positives and negatives. Using this method, the consensus is that it is nearly a wash.

This misses the enormously powerful historical momentum that will be generated by the Dream Ticket. When faced with a chance to elect the first black president, and the first female vice president, most Americans will at least feel a duty to think hard about the choice. Plus, the media coverage will be a major factor, and the Dream Ticket is a much better story than Obama/Slightly-Liberal-Version-of-McCain.

With McCain fumbling so badly early on, and with little chance of making inroads on the issues, he will have little choice but to fight dirty. Obama needs to keep his hands clean. The selection of Hillary as VP further benefits Obama on the campaign trail:

Take all the trouble that Hillary has caused Obama, then double it, and multiply it by W. That's day one of the hurtin' that Hillary's going to put on John McCain. She's going to be like ED 209, and McCain is going to wish he skipped work that day. For those of you unfamiliar with Robocop, she's going to be like Anton Chigurch, Javier Bardem's Oscar-winning hitman, flipping a coin and asking McCain to call it.

What's great about this, too, is that it effectively neutralizes most of the damage Clinton laid on Obama in the primaries. The media, and the Republicans, will throw the Clinton campaign's quotes at Obama, but her campaign will be there to hit 'em right back at McCain. Only Clinton's campaign has the brass ones to pivot their narrative on a dime, chuck the whole silverware drawer at you, then scold you for covering up your face.

And in the debates:

But the biggest impact Ron Paul (would) have on McCain's candidacy will be in the debates. It's a given that Obama will make McCain look ridiculous in them, but Hillary Clinton will kick most Republicans around like hard dog crap in the Vice Presidential debates. Paul is the only GOP candidate remotely qualified to go toe-to-toe with either of them. Maybe McCain can "faint" before his debates and let the doctor go to work.

Finally, Hillary Clinton would be a real asset as Vice President. For better or worse, Dick Cheney has redefined the post, and Hillary can do so again. I envision Hillary having an influential role in shaping policy, particularly on health care. There won't be the conflict there that some envision, since Clinton and Obama are very close on policy.

But her real talents will be put to use as an enforcer of something resembling party unity, helping to enact Barack Obama's agenda by corraling that adorable herd of kittens known as the Congressional Democrats. They shouldn't vote on everything in lock step, but I can only ever remembering the Democrats voting unanimously on Republican-sponsored "Terrorism is Bad and Civil Rights are for Pussies Act"-type bills.

A reader asked me the other day if I thought Obama would be overshadowed or undercut by Hillary as the VP. To me, that's the silliest objection of all. People are grossly underestimating Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton. Hillary, I believe, cares too much about the country to allow 4 years to be wasted, and Obama is too savvy and powerful to allow it. Plus, the press, so enamored of Obama, will act as a natural shield against this.

The fact that it is beginning to look like Obama won't need Hillary to beat McCain actually helps the Dream Ticket. With some of that pressure off, Obama can stop worrying about the appearance that he absolutely must pick her.

Will Barack Obama win without Hillary Clinton? Probably. But with so much at stake, why chance it? Picking Hillary is the smart move, which is why I know Obama will do it.


Postscript: A reader named Jo and I have made a little wager on whether Hillary is made VP. I also agreed to extend the challenge to my colleague, Mark Impomeni. Mark, let me know what you think.

Jo,

I have a reasonable bet for you. The loser has to ink their face for 1 day, and provide hourly photographic evidence, to be published on these pages. I will go for a RP R3volution design (ballpoint), and you will need to draw the "O" logo and an "H" in the appropriate font, in a visible spot, preferably the forehead. "O/H"