'Dream Ticket' Fantasy

It's the question on every political pundit's mind: Should Barack Obama choose Hillary Clinton as his running mate on the Democratic ticket? Most of the arguments in favor hinge on Sen. Clinton's performance in swing states in this year's primary, her support among women voters, a key demographic for Democrats, and her nearly 18 million total votes received in the primary contests. But the answer to the Clinton question may come from Sen. Obama's general view of the Clintons, rather than from any reading of this year's primary results. Fundamentally, Sen. Obama must first decide which view of the Clintons he ascribes to before making his decision.

The Clintons are viewed by many as a force for good in American politics. Nostalgia for the less complicated times of the 1990s is running high. When the Clintons were in the White House, so the popular history goes, there were no wars, no mortgage troubles, and no rocky economy. If Sen. Obama agrees with this view of the Clintons, than he should choose Sen. Clinton as his running mate. But if he adheres to a different view, one held by an equally large number of Americans, he should back away from that ledge slowly. The Clintons are also viewed as a selfish and ruthlessly ambitious couple willing to do almost anything to secure their own power. Mrs. Clinton's large following from the primaries may serve to kindle all the worst instincts in her, with potentially disastrous consequences for the Obama campaign.

First off, nostalgia should mean nothing to Sen. Obama. He has built his appeal around the idea that he is uniquely suited to bring change to Washington. Fresh blood and fresh ideas are the hallmark of his message. Choosing Hillary Clinton, and by extension Bill, would drown out that message and embroil the campaign in debates over the scandals and partisanship of the Clintons' reign. Those debates, and the necessary engagement in them by both Bill and Hillary, could overshadow Obama himself. Obama may find it difficult to cut through the noise, even at the top of the ticket. Additionally, Sen. Clinton's presence on the ballot would serve as a powerful motivator for the Republican base, more powerful even than the Republican candidate. In an election season in which one of the built in advantages for the Democrats is Republican voter apathy about their standard bearer, Obama should not look to give disaffected Republicans and conservatives a reason to come out and vote against his Vice-Presidential selection.

But the greatest danger that the Clintons pose for Obama comes not from their detractors, but from the Clintons themselves. And, ironically, it is here that Sen. Clinton's large following argues against her selection as Obama's running mate. In the primaries, Sen. Clinton did overwhelmingly well with rural working-class whites, women, and Hispanics. Her dominance among these groups gives her a ready made coalition from which to challenge Obama, even from the bottom of the ticket. She will be able to use her influence among these traditionally Democratic voters to shape policy and direct the campaign in ways that Obama may not like but will have to accept. In other words, Obama needs Clinton's voters to win in the general election, and her outreach to those groups on his behalf will come at a price. That price will surely be a very high profile Vice-Presidency with control over certain policy items, and may even include some decision making authority. Obama may find himself as the junior partner in a tri-presidency with Hillary and Bill.

Sen. Obama has run a good campaign with a focus on the future. He has carefully crafted his image as a practitioner of a new kind of politics, and has inspired millions of new participants in the political process. Choosing Sen. Clinton would virtually erase all that hard work in an instant. Having come this far, Obama should resist the temptation to win at all costs by selecting Hillary Clinton as his running mate. There are no guarantees that the ticket would win in November, given Mrs. Clintons' high unfavorability ratings, and even less of a guarantee that the partnership would work in practical terms. His campaign, and his potential future administration, would be much better served if he pays the Clintons their respects, but politely refuses their charms.