Hillary/McCain Switchers: Political Chupacabras?

John Dickerson at Slate breaks down the myth, versus the reality, of the influence that embittered Hillary Clinton supporters will actually have in this election. He likens it to a "Snipe Hunt," but I thought "Chupacabra" sounded funnier, and those have actually been found.

We're going on a snipe hunt. The quarry: women who supported Hillary and, now that she's lost, will leave the Democrats to vote for McCain. Unlike a true snipe hunt, where you never find your prey, these politically prized voters can be found. In fact, they seem to be everywhere. Hillary supporters leave angry e-mails in my inbox, and they are the topic of stories across the media spectrum, from NPR to Fox News to Slate's "XX Factor." Everyone's got an anecdote. Why, just the other day, a woman told me ...

I can back Dickerson up on the angry e-mails, comments, etc. Until today, however, I hadn't stopped to realize that I've never actually met one of them in person.

Let's start with the math. Clinton says 18 million people voted for her. That's about 13 percent of the electorate. Obama wins about 80 percent of the Clinton supporters in a recent poll, which means that the coveted Clinton-for-McCain voters represent about 2.6 percent of the electorate. These voters matter only if they live in one of the 20 or so swing states-they're not going to win Massachusetts for McCain. This means the total number of voters he needs to convince and hold onto is small.

While this may be good news for Barack Obama, the Democrats, women, and America, it isn't so good for my pet Quixotic windmill, the Dream Ticket. Although there are loads of other compelling rationales, the Hillary switchers were the most obvious and urgent.

On the heels of the hiring of Patti Solis Doyle as Chief of Staff to Obama's eventual nominee, things couldn't look worse for the Dream Ticket. It may soon become harder to find than a Jersey Devil at a Quick Chek deli counter.

This fills me with a sort of Cassandra-esque dread. Sure, Obama is doing well now, and McCain can't get out of his own way, but I've never seen a Democratic candidate suffer from too much firepower.