GOP Retirements Dim Chances of House Takeover

Rick Moran is glum about GOP chances to flip the house back.

But then came the scramble for the exits among House Republicans and that vision proved to be nothing but a mirage. Like a bunch of theatergoers leaving at the end of the second act of a really bad show, a parade of GOP Congressmen appeared before the cameras, and one by one over the ensuing months announced their retirement. The list grew to include 22 members - many of them long-serving Congressmen who found themselves facing a well funded, and enthusiastic Democratic challenger for the first time in many years.

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The math is frightening. With 28 seats up for grabs in 2008 on top of the 18 seat majority currently held by Democrats, there is a very good chance that Democrats, for all practical purposes, could win enough seats this year that the GOP would be a minority party for the next decade - and perhaps beyond. When 98% of incumbents in the House are victorious and redistricting looms in 2012, the chances of Republicans overcoming a 40 or 50-seat Democratic majority in the next couple of election cycles are slim.

This is correct, but it shouldn't have surprised anyway. The only thing that bothers me about this post is the lack of a sense of history even 12 years ago. The same thing happened post 1994 when it was the GOP in the catbird seat. There were many Democrats that retired, and a few that became Republicans (Ben Nighthorse Campbell was one of the higher profile examples). Which of course sank the Democrat chances of retaking the house for what turned out to be 12 years in the wilderness.

Many of the GOP retirees, among them Deb Pryce in Ohio, stuck out longer than they planned to as a favor to the party to keep control. Once control was no longer an issue what was the point. The GOP will not get control back this cycle, but this wave of retirements is overall a good thing for the GOP (and any political party). Fresh blood, new ideas, new faces will ultimately lead to less time in the wilderness.