Division on Iraq Good News for McCain

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that Americans are evenly divided between the two presidential candidates' positions on the war in Iraq. Respondents favor Sen. John McCain by 47-45% to handle the war. Fifty percent of respondents favor Obama's plan to withdraw U.S combat troops from Iraq within 16 months of taking office, while 49 percent oppose any timetables for withdrawal, embracing the McCain position. Critically for the electoral chances of both candidates, however, 53 percent of independents favor McCain's approach of letting events on the ground in Iraq dictate the pace of troop withdrawals.

The poll underscores the fact that the Iraq War has ceased to be a driving issue in the presidential campaign. But that fact may contain a hidden benefit for Sen. McCain. The Obama campaign has sought to tie McCain to the policies of President Bush, especially with respect to the war in Iraq. But the poll shows that the effort has largely failed to reduce public confidence in McCain's ability to lead the war effort, or in his Iraq policy. Seventy-two percent of respondents said that McCain would make a good commander-in-chief, compared to just 48% for Obama. Furthermore, with both candidates likely to shore up their bases before November, the percentage of independents favoring McCain's Iraq policy bodes well for his ability to win the crucial voting block in the fall.

The poll does contain some positive news for Obama's strategy. Sixty-three percent said that the war in Iraq has not been worth the cost, agreeing with Obama; although 46% said that the U.S. is making significant progress there, up from 40% in April. And a majority of those polled, fifty-one percent, said that the U.S. must succeed in Afghanistan in order to be successful in the war on terror. That comports with Obama's position that Afghanistan is the central front in the war on terror. Still, on balance, the poll is probably more welcome news in the McCain camp than in Obama's. McCain's campaign has been trying to paint Obama as too inexperienced on matters of national security. And while the poll results show that Americans generally give Obama's plan the same marks as McCain's, they continue to see McCain as a more viable commander-in-chief.