Gallup Poll Shows McCain Ahead of Obama

In a surprising result, the latest Gallup/USA Today poll of likely voters in the presidential race shows Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by four percentage points, 49-45. The shift represents a swing of 10 points in favor of Sen. McCain from last month's poll, which showed the Republican trailing Obama by 6 points. The poll was conducted over the weekend, on the heels of Sen. Obama's foreign trip. That trip was designed to show Sen. Obama as a competent manager of foreign policy and national security matters. But controversies marred the ending of the trip and may have contributed to the results of this poll.

While the McCain campaign will certainly be delighted with the results of the survey, several caveats bear mentioning. First, the poll's results are at variance with Gallup's daily tracking poll, which shows a 9 point lead for Obama. Second, although it is a Gallup poll, considered the gold standard of presidential polling, it is only one result and will likely change several times throughout the summer. Third, in the same poll, Sen. McCain is shown as trailing Obama among the larger group of registered voters by 3 points. Not all registered voters vote, however, and a lead among likely voters is generally considered by pollsters to be more significant as an indicator of the eventual election outcome.

The Obama campaign can take comfort in some of those same caveats, but the poll's result has to be very troubling for the Illinois Senator's effort. The campaign has been talking openly of preparing for a presidential transition and has been chastised recently by reporters for acting too much like a White House in waiting. Besides serving as a dose of reality for a campaign that has perhaps been flying a little too high, the result should spur the Obama campaign to take a serious look at its message. Obama has been primarily basing his appeal on his personal judgment and potential. But voters tend to vote on specifics, and the Obama campaign has been short on the kinds of concrete plans that voters typically look for from presidential candidates. In other words, Obama will have to demonstrate to voters that he is more than just an eloquent speaker to win the election.