Rove: Four States to Watch

According to him, and this is Karl Rove, so I'd pay attention, we should be watching Virginia, Ohio, Michigan and Colorado.

Other states will see serious competition, including Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, Missouri and Wisconsin. But Colorado, Virginia, Michigan and Ohio are likely to be the center of the action. To win, Mr. Obama needs to pick up 18 electoral votes more than John Kerry received, meaning Mr. Obama must carry Colorado or Virginia and add another small state to his column. If Mr. McCain carries Michigan as well as Ohio, it would make Mr. Obama's Electoral College math very difficult. And if Mr. McCain can limit GOP losses to one or two small states from those won by the GOP in 2004, he'll be America's 44th president.

He notes that in Ohio, among the keys will be suburban Cincinnati... hey, that's where I'm at! Hello ringside seat (again) along with the white blue collar areas in the northeast and southeast.

You would think that Florida would get more attention, but Karl Rove and recent polls show it as safely McCain and this column reflects the consensus that Florida will likely stay red. We'll watch how many times Obama goes there.

But the big takeaway here with these four is that McCain is defending three and Obama is defending one. It's Obama's race to lose, but it definitely can be lost, as Rove shows here.