Ellen to Wed this Weekend, So?

Comedian and daytime talk show host Ellen Degeneres reportedly will marry actress Portia di Rossi in California this weekend. The union, now legally sanctioned in the Golden State, comes in the run-up to yet another ballot initiative on the question of whether states should allow same-sex couples to wed. Proposition 8, which goes by several aliases -- the Protect Marriage Act, the Same-Sex Marriage Ban, and the Limit of Marriage Amendment -- is likely to fail, and largely because of the compelling case made over the years by Degeneres herself.

In the past year alone, she confronted John McCain on the issue, and even got a tacit OK for her wedding plans from Laura Bush and daughter Jenna.

Since California's Supreme Court overturned a previous initiative as unconstitutional, the state (our most populous) started issuing marriage licenses in mid-June. In Massachusetts, the only other place in the country that sanctions same-sex marriage, over 10,500 couples have formally tied the knot. In the next three years, it's estimated, roughly 50,000 California couples will follow suit.

As for the political response to Proposition 8. McCain says yes, while Barack Obama and California's governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, say no. A yes vote would ban same-sex marriage.

A quick look at polling trends shows American attitudes on gay rights, including marriage, are rapidly changing.

When asked "Do you think homosexuals who do publicly disclose their sexual orientation should be allowed to serve in the military or not?" 75% of Americans say they should be allowed to serve. That's up 31 percentage points from when the identical question was asked in 1993.

In fact, the most recently conducted Time poll showed a 47-47 split on whether or not gays should be allowed to marry (with the rest undecided). Astonishingly, just 42 percent said yes to the same question a little more than a month earlier.

This year, there are three states with anti-gay marriage ballot measures: California, Florida, and McCain's home state of Arizona (where a similar measure was rejected by voters in 2006). In order to amend Florida's constitution, which is what their measure proposes, it would have to earn 60% of the vote.

It seems clear that these are the waning days of gay marriage as a tried-and-true GOP strategy. For that, I say, thank you, Ellen. And congratulations!